The exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections paint a clear and unequivocal picture: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is set to clinch a third consecutive majority. According to these predictions, the BJP-led NDA is poised to win between 355 and 370 seats, while the Opposition-led INDIA bloc is expected to languish with only 125 to 140 seats. The overwhelming consensus among exit polls underscores a decisive mandate for continuity and stability at the national level. Should these projections manifest into actual results on the 4th of June, it would signify a staggering and historic triumph for the BJP-led NDA.
Another striking finding is that the BJP is making inroads into Kerala and Tamil Nadu, besides significantly outperforming the BJD in Odisha, the TMC in West Bengal, and the BRS and the Congress in Telangana. A notable finding is that when the vote share of regional parties decreases, it is predominantly shifting to the BJP rather than the Congress.
Why is this happening? The answer lies in the failed promises of the principal opposition party, which has relied heavily on freebies in its manifesto. However, past experiences have shown that these freebies are fiscally unsustainable and severely strain state finances. Take, for example, the promise of free bus rides in Telangana. The TSRTC was already struggling financially, and free bus rides have only worsened its condition. Moreover, this policy has led to a decrease in occupancy rates on the Hyderabad Metro, further complicating the city’s transportation dynamics.
In Karnataka, the economic adviser to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, Basavaraj Rayareddi, highlighted the significant burden imposed by the Congress government’s five poll guarantees. He stated, “The five guarantees have become a huge financial burden for our government because as much as Rs 58,000 crore has been earmarked for these.” Clearly, these freebies, disguised as poll promises, are unsustainable and ineffective. The principal opposition party has failed to present a viable model that works. It has failed to offer a successful alternative.
The BJP, on the other hand, is capitalizing on this failure. Voters are increasingly turning to the BJP as they seek stability and sustainable governance. The inability of the principal opposition to deliver on its promises and manage state finances effectively has created an opportunity for the BJP to expand its influence and win the trust of the electorate.
Another crucial finding from the exit polls is the BJP’s strong performance in states where poverty levels remain high. Many years ago, demographer Ashish Bose coined the term BIMARU to describe the undivided states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, symbolising India’s developmental challenges. Although West Bengal and Odisha were not included in this list, they continue to grapple with significant poverty levels. India’s development, employment, and poverty reduction largely hinge on progress in these populous states with substantial poverty bases.
Poverty reduction is rarely linear; sharper declines occur when initial poverty levels are high, but as numbers fall, further reductions become increasingly difficult. The UNDP’s Multidimensional Poverty Index ( MPI ) captures this complexity by evaluating a range of development indicators across health, education, and standard of living. Key dimensions such as nutrition, child and adolescent mortality, maternal health, schooling, cooking fuel, sanitation, drinking water, housing, electricity, and asset ownership offer a comprehensive measure of development.
Remarkable progress has been observed in the past decade as indicated by a recent NITI Aayog Discussion Paper . Uttar Pradesh saw a reduction of 593.69 lakh in poverty, Bihar 377.09 lakh, Madhya Pradesh 230.00 lakh, West Bengal 172.18 lakh, and Odisha 102.78 lakh. These improvements reflect substantial advancements in people’s lives. For instance, better nutrition and lower mortality rates signify enhanced healthcare; increased schooling and attendance indicate educational progress; and improved access to clean water, reliable electricity, and safe housing demonstrate strides in living conditions.
This progress underscores the success of the Union government’s initiatives over the last decade. Programs like Swachh Bharat Mission, Ujjwala Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Poshan Abhiyaan, the strengthening of ICDS, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Jan Dhan Yojana have collectively contributed to this multidimensional poverty reduction. These efforts have not only lifted millions out of poverty but have also laid the foundation for a more prosperous and equitable society. Further, the focus of these schemes has been on empowerment. As the exit polls suggest, the electorate’s preference for the BJP in these states can be attributed to the significant improvements in their lives due to these schemes. This offers a compelling explanation for the anticipated electoral outcome.
At the same time, this victory would also be approval on India’s New Welfarism Model. India’s New Welfarism model is fundamentally about empowerment, integrating theoretical insights from development economics and social policy to enhance individual and collective capabilities. This approach aligns with Amartya Sen’s capability approach, emphasising expanding the freedoms people have to lead lives they value. Rather than providing temporary relief through handouts, New Welfarism equips citizens with essential resources and opportunities, addressing immediate needs and fostering long-term socio-economic mobility. For instance, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana promotes financial inclusion, the Ujjwala Yojana empowers women by improving health outcomes and reducing time poverty, and the Saubhagya scheme electrifies households to enhance quality of life and productivity.
These initiatives reflect the concept of “asset-based welfare”, which provides assets for sustainable improvements in well-being. Additionally, the Aadhaar-enabled direct benefit transfer system enhances efficiency and transparency, ensuring benefits reach intended recipients directly and aligning with principles of good governance. By focusing on empowerment, New Welfarism moves beyond traditional welfare approaches that perpetuate dependency, creating an enabling environment where individuals can develop their capabilities and contribute to economic and social development.
This election could thus redefine the contours of Indian politics, setting a precedent for future administrations to focus on sustainable, inclusive growth as the cornerstone of their mandate.
Aditya Sinha (X:@adityasinha004) is OSD, Research, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minster. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
