China’s military drills near Taiwan to test ability to ‘seize power’: Is Taipei prepared?

It’s been a busy two days in the Taiwan Strait. On Friday (24 May), China began its second day of military drills targeting Taiwan, with Beijing saying they were testing its ability to seize the self-ruled island.

The war games , which include units from the air force, rocket force, navy, army, and coast guard, began on Thursday morning (23 May), days after Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te was sworn in and in his inauguration speech he had said that he hoped “China would respect the choices of the people of Taiwan, and in good faith, choose dialogue over confrontation”.

On Thursday, China began military drills, dubbed Joint Sword-2024A, saying it was punishment for separatist forces seeking independence. And on Friday, China’s Li Xi, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command was quoted as saying, “They are testing the capability of joint seizure of power, joint strikes and control of key territories.”

Visuals of the drills showed soldiers streaming out of a building to battle stations and jets taking off to a rousing martial tune. Moreover, an animated graphic published by the Chinese military showed missiles raining down on key targets in the north, south and east of the island, declaring it would “cut off the blood vessels for Taiwan independence!”

Taiwan condemned the drills as “irrational provocations” and dispatched naval, air, and ground forces to defend the [island’s] sovereignty.

Experts observe that the war exercises are Beijing’s way of showing Taipei that it is exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.

It’s also got many questioning: Can Taiwan withstand a Chinese attack if it happens? How war-ready is Taiwan?

Man vs Man

When it comes to a direct comparison between China and Taiwan’s military, then the latter is at a huge disadvantage. China’s military, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is the largest standing army in the world with two million members. Compare this to Taiwan, which has a population of just 23 million and a military of 1,69,000 active service personnel.

The upper hand that Taiwan possesses is that it has 1.5 million people in military reserves, compared to China, which has .5 million reserved personnel. Taiwan ranks number one in terms of reserve forces, while China is at number six.

When it comes to defence budgets , China’s defence spending dwarves Taiwan’s. China is the second-biggest spender on defence after the United States, with $230 billion allocated for its military. Taipei, on the other hand, in 2023 had announced that it had plans to increase its defence budget to $19.1 billion, equivalent to 2.6 per cent of its GDP.

Taiwan’s former president, Tsai Ing-wen, reversed years of stagnant military spending, pushing through seven consecutive increases and nearly doubling Taiwan’s defence budget over the course of her tenure. She also extended compulsory military service from four months to one year.

Land power

According to Global Firepower ranking, China has 5,000 tanks in its arsenal. On the other hand, Taiwan possesses 1,010 tanks. China also boasts of having 35,000 armoured vehicles while Taiwan has just 3,472. When it comes to towed and mobile rocket projectors too, China outdoes Taiwan, putting the self-ruled island at a great disadvantage.

Up in the skies

In terms of airpower as well, China outnumbers Taiwan, with 3,304 aircraft, including the advanced J-20s. Taipei is reported to have 750 aircraft.

The Global Firepower index reveals that of the 3,304 aircraft in China’s arsenal, 1,207 are fighter warplanes. Meanwhile, Taiwan has only 286 warplanes. China also has 450 specialist bomber aircraft and 286 transport aircraft, whilst Taipei only has 19 transport planes and no bombers.

In the waters

China’s naval strength also outdoes Taiwan’s. Beijing has a fleet strength of 730 ships, while Taipei has 93. The Chinese can deploy 49 destroyers and 42 frigates, as against four and 22 respectively for Taiwan.

China also boasts of three aircraft carriers. As recently as this month, Beijing’s third aircraft carrier, Fujian , took to the seas for its maiden sea trials. It is expected to weigh 79,000 tonnes, carrying the most potent fighter jet launch system - the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System. Taiwan, on the other hand, doesn’t have a single aircraft carrier.

In addition, China has 61 submarines whereas Taiwan has four.

Going nuclear

China has not disclosed how many warheads it has, but the US Defence Department’s 2021 report on the Chinese military stated that China’s warhead stockpile was “currently estimated to be in the low-200s”, while the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute put the number at 350.

China, it said, “likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030”. China’s nuclear build-up is being seen as one of the biggest threats to Western military supremacy.

Taiwan shoring up its defences

However, not all is lost for Taiwan. The self-ruled island has been shoring up its defences. Moreover, it has been improving its asymmetric warfare techniques.

In fact, since Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, she has been working hard to reform the country’s military by raising the budget and enhancing defence programmes at home. It has also increased the weaponry it is buying from the US and other countries. In 2023 alone, Taiwan ordered $1.55 billion in weapons and services from the US, including infrared tracking systems for F-16 jets, munitions, spare parts for aircraft and technical support.

Taiwan has also purchased drones, anti-tank munitions systems, Paladin Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems, AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, MK-48 Mod6 Advanced Technology heavyweight torpedoes, AGM-154C JSOW air-to-ground missiles as well as field communication equipment and training packages, as per an Al Jazeera report.

Japanese support for Taiwan has also become more forceful over the past couple of years, breaking with its previous policy. In June 2021, Yasuhide Nakayama, Japan’s then deputy defence minister, told a conference “we have to protect Taiwan, as a democratic country”.

For Taiwan, if China attacked, they could learn from Ukraine, who has been quite successful in holding off the Russians. May be, they should pay closer attention to the ongoing war and learn from Kyiv.

With inputs from agencies