Is Donald Trump going to prison after being found guilty in hush money trial?

“We the jury have a verdict”. And with these words, American history changed. After five weeks of a lengthy and sometimes tumultuous trial, the 12 members of the jury in a New York court found Donald J Trump guilty on all 34 counts in the hush money trial case, making him the first former US president ever convicted of a crime.

The 77-year-old Trump , who is currently in the midst of the US presidential race, is now a felon. However, he is not barred from continuing his battle to unseat President Joe Biden in November.

As soon as the jury concluded, Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche, said his team was eying an appeal “as soon as we can.” Meanwhile, Trump himself took a defiant stance, saying: “I’m a very innocent man.” He added that the “real verdict” would come from voters on election day. He branded the trial “rigged” and a “disgrace.”

After being found guilty, the question that all seem to be asking is: Will Donald Trump go to prison? We have the answers.

Guilty!

Trump has been found guilty of falsifying business records to reimburse his lawyer, Michael Cohen, for a $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels, an adult film star, on the eve of the 2016 election, when her claim to have had sex with him could have proved fatal to his campaign against Hillary Clinton.

The prosecution, led by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg , had to prove that Trump approved of his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, paying adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 to stay silent about an alleged sexual encounter so as not to derail Trump’s 2016 campaign. Trump then approved a fraudulent scheme to disguise the reimbursement to Cohen as legal expenses to hide the hush money.

According to prosecutors, by doing so, Trump ran afoul of election rules, which amounted to “election fraud, pure and simple”.

During the trial, the prosecution brought in 20 witnesses. This included Daniels , whose real name is Stephanie Clifford and who described to the court in graphic detail what she says was a 2006 sexual encounter with the married Trump. They also brought in Cohen to describe how the payments were made to Daniels.

At the end, it seemed all of the evidence pointed to the fact that Trump was guilty.

Trump’s guilty verdict drew angry reactions from supporters of the former US president, and elation among his detractors. As one of them said to AFP later, “I think it’s going to make him more popular with the American people because they’re seeing how he’s being targeted and mistreated.”

The sentencing

While Trump has been found guilty, it is not yet known what punishment he faces. The case now moves on to the sentencing phase, which is a process largely controlled by Judge Juan Merchan.

Judge Merchan has set the sentencing date for 11 July at 10 am ET (7.30 pm IST) and has ordered parties in the case to file motions by 13 June and for prosecutors to respond by 27 June.

According to reports, Trump will likely sit for an interview with a probation officer for a pre-sentence report. This will include information about his personal history as well as his criminal record. As NBC News reported, the responses will be incorporated into a pre-sentence report for the judge, which includes sentencing recommendations for Merchan to consider.

Until his sentencing, Trump will be free to speak to the media, travel and continue his presidential campaign. Interestingly, he will no longer be bound by the gag order that had barred him from discussing witnesses, jurors and the judge’s family members, among others.

Prison or no prison

All of the 34 counts which Trump has been charged under are Class E felonies — the least serious category under New York law. The maximum sentence for the charges Trump was found guilty of is four years in prison.

However, it seems unlikely that Merchan will impose the maximum punishment on Trump. Some factors that will likely influence the judge’s decision are: Trump’s age of 77 and his lack of a prior criminal record.

However, Trump’s conduct during the trial could also influence Merchan’s ultimate decision. This could be a problem for the former US president, who publicly attacked the judge and accused him of political bias throughout the trial.

Experts, however, are of the opinion that Trump won’t go to jail. He will be looking at fines and restitution, probation or other conditions. New York City defence lawyer Michael Bachner told NBC News, “I’d be shocked if Trump is sentenced to jail.” He added that a sentence of probation would be normal for the average defendant convicted of the same crime.

A report by CBS News said that Trump could be possibly looking at home detention where he would be mandated to wear an ankle monitor and his movements would be tracked. Dan Horwitz, a defence lawyer who formerly prosecuted white-collar cases for the Manhattan District Attorney’s office, said that a home detention sentence, which walks a middle ground between no punishment and a stint in state prison, might be the most likely outcome. It would also satisfy Trump’s unusual security and political situation.

Pace Law School professor Bennett Gershman told CNBC that owing to the complex challenges it would bring to imprison Trump, such as his Secret Service would also have to be jailed, the judge might instead opt for a sentence of house arrest.

However, if Trump is sent to jail for more than a year, New York law requires that his sentence be served in a New York penal facility. But if his sentence is shorter than a year, it would be served in a New York City correctional facility, such as Rikers Island.

Trump can still be president

It’s also important to note that while Trump has been found guilty, it doesn’t stop his bid for the White House. The US constitution only requires presidential candidates to be at least 35 years old and natural-born citizens who have lived in the US for at least 14 years.

As of now, it is unknown as to what the political fallout of the verdict is. But come November, the picture will be clearer.

With inputs from agencies