GhoseSpot | An election sans issues: Why 2024 poll campaign is without fireworks

While the 2024 Lok Sabha Election campaign is taking place on different and disparate platforms, from the point of view of the ordinary voter it is arguably one of the dullest elections of recent times. There is no discernible wave of any kind. If the dice appear to be loaded heavily in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party in most parts of the country, it is not because of a groundswell but more a reflection of an existential state of being. In 2014, the seismic plates had already shifted and a tsunami was waiting to happen. In 2019, even if some headwinds were felt post demonetization, GST and “Chowkidar Chor Hain” innuendos riding on allegations around the Rafale deal, Pulwama changed the wind directions and how. Even if one were to look back at 2004 and 2009 – there were several issues at the national and state levels to keep the pot boiling. This time around the electioneering seems to be happening at 36K feet above sea level while life carries on as usual on the ground. Everyone is firing in different directions and going off on tangents leaving the common man unmoved.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing the strange plight of having neither any formidable opposition nor any singular issue to rally the voters. All said in 2019, though in the final vote count the Congress had come a cropper, Congress did manage to create some traction with its “Chowkidar Chor Hain” slogan. This time around the messaging around income inequality, employment and caste are sounding insipid and confused. Congress cannot overplay the electoral bonds and overreach of Central investigative agencies knowing that it can cut both ways. Similarly, it could not make too much noise over the Income Tax Department freezing its accounts for the fear of opening a can of worms.

The I.N.D.I. Alliance after struggling with an identity crisis from birth has disaggregated for all practical purposes, with each party trying to protect their home turfs to avoid total irrelevance post elections. In states where individual constituents are strong, as in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh they are playing the North-South divide to ward off threats of BJP’s creeping increase in vote share that could be a cause of worry for them in the longer term. The primal instinct of survival is manifesting in scarcely concealed hostility as visible in West Bengal, Kerala. Oblivious of its allies, Congress is projecting Rahul Gandhi as the prime minister in waiting, who in turn is - like an angry middle-aged Jedi – firing NYAY missiles into outer space. Basically, it is an election without any overarching issue or political narrative.

Meanwhile, a much more interesting battle is taking place in a parallel universe. It appears that the anti-Modi lobby has taken his “guarantee” of 400+ seats almost for granted. This has triggered reactions to the point of being hysterical. Large sections of the western media have been co-opted into this campaign and op-ed writers of international newspapers are working overtime to feed the paranoia of “democracy under threat” and the spectre of India sliding into a virtual autocracy if Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns for a third term. There are suggestions that Modi may amend the Constitution to seize absolute power.  Hence, some pundits are going as far as to predict 2024 may be the last democratic elections in India. Modi is being compared with Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recently a new dimension has been added about the Modi regime indulging in extraterritorial assassinations of purported terrorists. This has created some ripples in diplomatic circles. There evidently an orchestrated effort at building a chorus of delegitimizing the elections in case of BJP winning with a thumping majority.

But none of this is cutting much ice with the electorate at large. For the common voters, the acid test of democracy is being able to cast a vote without fear or favour. Thanks to the Election Commission and the security forces booth capturing and proxy voting are phenomena of the distant past. Debates on Jurisprudence and constitutional law do not interest the man on the street. For them, the biggest reassurance is a riot-free society, personal safety and security of property. With the majority of the people living outside the income tax net, raids by enforcement authorities on the high and mighty is a cause for vicarious satisfaction as the opposition realised to its surprise after demonetisation. The allegations of killing of terrorists by ‘unknown men’ on foreign soil if anything bolsters Modi’s “tough guy” image among his core constituents.

Modi understands the mind of the voter. Having delivered on Kashi and Ayodhya he does not have to hard-sell the religion card. That message is delivered through visual imagery of his visiting different temples across the country. He has identified dynastic politics as a common pan-India denominator and successfully tagged it with corruption through the raid regime,  reiterating his resolve to root out corruption at the highest level. It takes away the sting from the oppositions’ allegation of victimisation and crony capitalism bestowing a Teflon coating on him. Hence, he recites almost by rote the welfare schemes of the government at every rally cementing his image as the messiah of the poor. Modi is a firm believer in the power of repetition. So though his speeches on the current campaign trail may not be as mesmerising as in 2014 and less flamboyant than in 2019 or even come across as lacklustre, he manages to hit straight home on every outing.

Meanwhile, BJP’s formidable but silent “war-room” managers are busy stitching up alliances, striking deals and fixing the machinery on the ground to convert the last voter standing the rhetoric.

But if the electioneering is muted and shorn of fireworks, the voter too is keeping mum. Is there a message in that silence too?

The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.