How ANC’s loss of parliamentary majority can herald uncertainty for South Africa

For the first time since the end of the apartheid era in 1994, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has plummeted below the majority mark. It has won nearly 40 per cent of the vote, losing more than 17 per cent from its earlier low of 57.2 per cent in 2019. Its seats will fall from 230 in the 400-member National Assembly to 159. This means that a coalition era is now upon South Africa.

There is a two-week window for parties in Parliament to come together to form a government and to elect a president.

The opposition’s white-dominated, business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA) received 21.8 per cent of the vote, a marginal increase over 2019. It has 87 seats. This party is now attracting more support from Indians and coloureds among the 28 million South African voters, 58 per cent of whom voted. This is the lowest voter turnout since 1994.

The radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of former ANC youth leader Julius Malema got 9.5 per cent and 39 seats, a marginal decrease over the previous election. The biggest surprise has been that former President Jacob Zuma moved away from the ANC, disappointed with its defiance of him, and led a party, the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which was only set up in September 2023. The literal translation of the party’s name is ‘Spear of the Nation’, which was what the ANC military wing was called during the anti-apartheid struggle. He has won 14.6 per cent of the vote and 58 seats. It has mainly damaged the ANC since other parties’ positions have not changed so much.

In the nine regions, the ANC has won clear majorities in five. Limpopo (74 per cent), the Eastern Cape (62 per cent), North West (59 per cent), Free State (53 per cent), and Mpumalanga (52 per cent). In the Western Cape, the DA has continued its victories since 2009 and has a clear majority. In KwaZulu Natal, dominated by Zulus, the Zuma-led MK has won 46 per cent but has not secured a majority. The ANC has 18 per cent. This is where Mandela had earlier allowed the Inkatha Freedom Party, or Zulus, to rule. Again, this Zulu-dominated province, centred around Durban, is showing different trends but is unable to provide a majority. The IFP increased its seats to 17 from 14 and could have a say in coalitions.

In two other provinces, Gauteng (36 per cent) and some of the Northern Cape (49 per cent) the ANC leads but does not have a majority. Therefore, in at least three provinces, besides the national government, coalitions would be required.

South Africa has a proportional representation system chosen that brings inclusivity, is considered simple, and could also encourage coalition governments. Here, people select a party in 10 multi-member constituencies. Nine of them are corelated and the same as the nine provinces, which elect 200 seats to the 400-seat parliament.

Seats are distributed in proportion to the votes a party secures. The lower house has 400 seats, and the upper house, the National Council of Provinces, has 90 seats, 10 from each of the nine provinces. The members of the upper house are nominated by each provincial legislature, much like India’s Rajya Sabha.

However, the National Assembly, unlike the Lok Sabha, is based on the votes gathered by a party and not by a single first-past-the-post winner. Each party has a national ballot and a regional ballot, where they choose the MPs through the national or regional lists. Half the seats, 200, are regional seats and are filled by regional ballots and regional lists. The other 200 are national seats and are filled by national votes and lists.

Once the vote count is converted into the number of seats won, this process is first conducted on a regional basis and then on a national basis. The process is not as simple as it sounds, as it requires calculations, which is why perhaps the election results took several days after the close of the polls. The MK is keen to challenge these in court.

In August 2023, the Democratic Alliance entered into a pre-poll arrangement called the multi-party charter with the Inkatha Freedom Party and a few other parties to challenge the 30-year governance of the ANC. The weakness of the ANC has led to the emergence of the Economic Freedom Fighters and the MK, which are ANC splinters.

Zuma left the ANC in December 2023 as he was facing corruption charges, and felt that the party was not adequately backing him. He accused the ANC of becoming a front for white capitalists, and his party, the MK, is named after the military wing of the ANC during the anti-apartheid period. Zuma was disallowed from contesting the elections, but that did not prevent his MK from securing 14.6 per cent of the vote.

The experience of coalitions at local levels has not been successful, but the main challenges are the levels of unemployment and perceived inequality. Estimates are that between 33 and 42 per cent of South Africa’s working-age population is unemployed, which is perhaps the highest unemployment rate globally. As much as 61 per cent of those in the 15–24 age group are unemployed.

The Social Policy Institute Initiative believes that 24 million out of a population of 60 million in South Africa are either unemployed or barely surviving. For better employment, South African GDP needs to grow by 6 per cent a year which it has not attained for over a decade. In 2023, its growth rate was 2 per cent and for the next five years, a growth rate of between 1 and 2 per cent is expected.

South Africa seems ill-prepared for a coalition era. The ANC did not expect such a massive dip in its fortunes, especially at the hands of Zuma. Its coalition options boil down to the investor-friendly DA or to the Zuma-led MK; the EFF does not have enough to provide the ANC with a majority unless the IFP joins the EFF and ANC to keep Zuma and the DA out.

Given the state of the South African economy, they need reform and investor-friendly policies. These will not come from the EFF or even from the MK, which were the radical parts of the ANC. Zuma’s condition that they will only talk to an ANC minus Cyril Ramaphosa does not seem to gel with the ANC. Having just lost its majority, the ANC would perhaps be unwilling to undergo a leadership change at the behest of Zuma.

The most probable coalition may be between the ANC and DA, which have a broadened vote base beyond white populations and an investor-friendly agenda. The major points of difference are that Ramaphosa wants his health reforms and black empowerment to be non-negotiable, which the DA believes the country can ill-afford.

The ANC is now talking to all parties. It will gauge which coalition brings in the numbers, a workable common minimum programme, and support in Gauteng and the Northern Cape to form majorities there too.

If this is not feasible, in the 14-day period, the ANC may go in for a minority government with outside issue-based support, including the re-election of Ramaphosa. The coalition forming and running is attesting to a single dominant party system.

The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN and the African Union. He tweets @AmbGurjitSingh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.