After more than four weeks and nearly two dozen witnesses, former United States president Donald Trump’s hush money trial is now entering the final stretch. Prosecutors and Trump’s defense team will deliver their closing arguments beginning on Tuesday morning in the New York courtroom that has played host to a series of heated exchanges and memorable moments since testimony began in late April.
The jury will then be asked to deliberate and reach a verdict, just months before the country heads to the polls for what is expected to be a closely fought November election between Trump, a Republican, and his Democratic rival president Joe Biden. Trump, who faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business documents in relation to hush money payments made to an adult film star before the 2016 presidential election, has pleaded not guilty.
We explain what possibilities various outcomes open up.
Context of the hush money trial
Donald Trump is the first former president in US history to be indicted, facing four separate criminal cases. However, the New York case, stemming from the hush money payment to Stormy Daniels, is the first to go to trial and may be the only one to do so before the November 2024 election. The trial, as well as the gag order on Trump, has forced him to spend more time in court than on the campaign trail in recent weeks, bringing heightened attention to this particular case.
The charges against Trump include 34 counts of falsifying business records, a serious offense under New York law. These records are alleged to have been falsified to conceal payments made to Daniels to keep her from disclosing an alleged sexual affair, which Trump denies. The timing of these payments and the subsequent cover-up, as alleged, was crucial to preventing damage to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.
Implications of a ‘guilty’ verdict
If Trump is found guilty, the repercussions could be significant. Opinion polls indicate that a guilty verdict could deter a substantial portion of the electorate from supporting Trump. According to an April Reuters/Ipsos poll, one in four Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he is found guilty in a criminal trial, while 60 per cent of independents expressed the same sentiment.
However, some Republican strategists argue that the New York case’s nature, brought by a Democratic prosecutor with untested legal strategies, could allow Trump and his supporters to frame a guilty verdict as a partisan attack. This perspective could mitigate some of the potential damage to his campaign by rallying his base around the idea of a political witch hunt.
Even if Trump is convicted, it’s unlikely that he will serve jail time before the election. This is due to the lengthy appeals process. Legal experts suggest that his old age, lack of prior convictions, and his status as a former president might influence sentencing decisions. If convicted, there would almost certainly be an appeal, potentially dragging the legal battle past Election Day.
Impact of a ’not guilty’ verdict
An acquittal would likely be a significant victory for Trump, reinforcing his claims of political persecution. On the campaign trail, Trump could use a not-guilty verdict to bolster his defense against other criminal charges he faces in Washington, Georgia, and Florida.
Political consultants believe an acquittal would validate Trump’s narrative of innocence and energise his core supporters. However, the details that emerged during the trial—particularly the central allegation of arranging hush money payments to a porn star—could still harm his appeal among key voter demographics, such as suburban women.
Consequences of a hung jury
If the jury cannot reach a unanimous verdict, resulting in a hung jury, the judge would declare a mistrial. While Trump could spin this as a partial victory, it lacks the clear vindication of an acquittal. A mistrial would suggest that at least some jurors believed Trump was guilty, maintaining a shadow of suspicion over his campaign.
The trial’s conclusion, regardless of the verdict, will end the gag order imposed by the judge, allowing Trump to speak more freely about the case. In such a scenario, he is very likely to intensify his rhetoric against his perceived enemies.
Trump’s legal and political strategy
The outcome of Donald Trump’s hush money trial in New York could significantly impact the 2024 presidential election. A guilty verdict might alienate a segment of voters, while an acquittal could bolster Trump’s claims of political persecution. A hung jury, on the other hand, would leave the allegations unresolved but maintain a degree of doubt.
As the trial draws to a close, the potential verdicts carry weighty implications for Trump’s campaign. His ability to navigate these legal challenges and their political fallout will be crucial as he seeks to reclaim the presidency. Regardless of the outcome, the trial has already underscored the unprecedented nature of Trump’s candidacy and the complex interplay between legal proceedings and electoral politics in contemporary America.
With inputs from agencies
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