The Phalodi Satta Bazar in Rajasthan till recently maintained a track record of accurate predictions, be it for elections, cricket matches or weather forecasts, however, it lost its bet with its estimate on the Lok Sabha election 2024 results as the BJP secured fewer seats than anticipated.
Until the eve of June 4, when Lok Sabha poll results were announced, this betting market was confident of BJP’s clean sweep. It offered odds of 1:1 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure 303-306 seats, meaning a bet of Rs 1 would yield a profit of Rs 1.
It also predicted that Congress would secure a win on 61-63 seats, with the same 1:1 odds.
For Rajasthan, the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicted 19-20 seats for BJP and a maximum of six seats for Congress. But the saffron party only managed to secure win on 14 of 25 seats, while Congress got eight seats.
How Phalodi Satta Bazar sets these rates?
This betting market of Rajasthan sets rates based on inputs it receives from its sources placed across major political centres. These rates, however, keeps on fluctuating as per the trend.
The mood of voters and election trends are analysed using information from across the country.
A report by Times of India quoted a punter closely following the market as saying that until the last minute, the market showed no signs BJP would win less than 300 seats. “A margin of 7-8 seats in a poll is significant,” he added.
The betting rates also fluctuate based on several factors, including the popularity of candidate, caste-based support, voter support at the election rallies, party strength and status.
Terms and Mechanisms
Two main terms are used in the Satta Bazar: ‘khana’ and ‘lagana’. ‘Khana’ denotes bets with a very slim chance of winning, while ’lagana’ signifies bets with a higher likelihood of success.
Betting for the Lok Sabha elections 2024
In mid-April, ahead of the first of seven phase Lok Sabha polls, bookies were expecting BJP to win a maximum of 325 seats and a minimum of 322, and bets were accepted by them accordingly.
The report quoted a bookie saying: “This doesn’t mean that all punters lost. Some placed bets on BJP, while others on Congress. The market only provides rates based on trends, it does not influence any punter. People can bet however they feel.”
 "Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish want special category status for their states: What is it?")
 "Who will get what in next NDA govt? Here’s what BJP’s allies want")
 "251 of 543 newly elected MPs face criminal cases: ADR")
 "First-timers have a majority of their own in Lok Sabha")