INDI Alliance shows big gains in country's biggest states: UP, Maharashtra. How?

In a dramatic turn of events, the INDI Alliance has defied exit polls to register significant gains in two of India’s largest and most politically influential states: Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. These states, contributing a combined total of 128 seats to the Lok Sabha, are pivotal in determining the composition of the central government.

The recent trends indicate a shifting political landscape, with the opposition alliance challenging the dominance of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Sweeping changes in Uttar Pradesh

The counting is underway for all 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, one of India’s most politically significant states. The BJP-led NDA is currently leading in 37 seats, while the INDIA bloc is ahead in 40, according to the latest trends available on the Election Commission website. The Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) is also leading on one seat.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 62 of the state’s 80 seats, with the BSP and Samajwadi Party, then allies, winning 10 and five seats, respectively. This time, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have tied up for the opposition INDIA bloc, and the BSP is contesting independently.

For the Congress, Amethi and Rae Bareli, its family strongholds, are prestige battles. This holds especially true for Amethi, where Rahul Gandhi lost to BJP’s Smriti Irani last time. While the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party is contesting 62 seats, the Congress is fighting in 17. The BJP has maintained its alliance with Apna Dal (Sonelal) and has also included Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD and OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party into the NDA fold.

Among the key Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently leading over Congress’s Ajay Rai in Varanasi, while Congress MP Rahul Gandhi is ahead in Rae Bareli.

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav is leading from the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat. In Lucknow, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, seeking a third term, is leading over SP’s Ravidas Mehrotra and BSP candidate Sarwar Malik.

Hema Malini, BJP’s actor-turned-politician, is ahead in the Mathura constituency against Congress’ Mukesh Dhangar. Union minister Smriti Irani is trailing behind Congress’ Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi.

Maharashtra’s political realignment

Maharashtra is witnessing a close contest between the ruling NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc as votes are counted for the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. As of 1130 hours, the INDIA bloc is currently leading in 20 plus seats, while the NDA alliance is ahead in 17.

The elections in the state were fought in a changed political landscape after splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP following rebellions by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

In 2019, the BJP won 23 seats in Maharashtra, and its then ally Shiv Sena (undivided) bagged 18. The then undivided NCP had bagged four constituencies, whereas the Congress could win just one seat. Maharashtra sends the second biggest contingent to the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats, and the outcome here could significantly impact the formation of the government at the Centre.

Several big names are in the fray, including Nitin Gadkari, Narayan Rane, Piyush Goyal, Bharti Pawar, Raosaheb Danve, Kapil Patil (all Union Ministers), Navneet Kaur-Rana, Ujjwal Nikam, Dr. Shrikant Shinde, Chhatrapati Udayanraje Bhosale, Sunetra Ajit Pawar, Sunil Tatkare, and others.

What could be the factors behind INDIA bloc’s surge?

The INDIA bloc’s performance, defying exit polls, can be attributed to several key factors.

Firstly, the strategic alliances and the consolidation of opposition votes played a crucial role. The Samajwadi Party and Congress’s alliance in Uttar Pradesh and the newly formed coalitions in Maharashtra provided a united front against the BJP-led NDA.

Secondly, the focus on local issues and robust campaign strategies looks to have resonated well with the voters. In Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA bloc capitalised on the agrarian distress and unemployment issues, while in Maharashtra, the narrative centered around the fallout from the Shiv Sena and NCP splits and the ensuing political instability.

The gains made by the INDIA bloc in these crucial states have significant implications for national politics. With Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra together contributing 128 seats to the Lok Sabha, the performance here could determine the balance of power in the upcoming government formation.

However, final results may show a different picture altogether.

Also Read: From Varanasi to Wayanad, the big battles to watch out for in the 2024 Lok Sabha election

With inputs from agencies