Did exit polls get it wrong? How INDI Alliance is defying predictions

FP Explainers • June 4, 2024, 10:31:28 IST

The early trends are throwing up a big surprise. The Opposition INDI Alliance has put up a good fight as it crosses the 200 mark, exceeding the predictions of exit polls. The NDA is poised to win read more

Did exit polls get it wrong? How INDI Alliance is defying predictions

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior party leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi at AICC headquarters, in New Delhi, on 21 March. The Congress is part of the INDI Alliance which has much reason to celebrate keeping in mind early trends. File photo/PTI

It’s election day and with early trends, the National Democratic Alliance looks poised for victory. However, the Opposition bloc, INDIA, seems to have performed better than expected.

Early trends bring good news for INDI Alliance

According to early trends, INDI Alliance has made massive gains as compared to their numbers in 2019. It has crossed the 200-seat mark as results pour in. The Congress appears on course to win over 100 Lok Sabha seats, its biggest tally since 2014.

If the current trends are to be believed the NDA is down by around 50 seats, according to NDTV. INDI Alliance has gained nearly 80 as compared to its tally in 2019.

Uttar Pradesh appears to have thrown a surprise in early trends. It comes as a big shock for the BJP where the Opposition has made gains because of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. As things stand now, the BJP is leading in 34 seats, SP in 30, Congress in 6 and Rashtriya Lok Dal in two.

However, these are early trends and are subject to change.

What exit polls predicted for 2024

Exit polls predicted a comparatively poor performance for INDI alliance.

The News18 mega exit poll gave the BJP-led NDA between 355 and 370 seats. The BJP itself is estimated to get 305 to 315 seats, it said.

The pollster gave the INDI alliance between 125 and 140 seats and the Congress 62 to 72 seats.

Today’s Chanakya, the most accurate pollster over the past two Lok Sabha elections, has predicted that the NDA will get between 385 and 415 seats. It predicted anywhere between 96 and 118 seats for the Opposition bloc.

The Dainik Bhaskar poll predicted the INDI Alliance will get between 145 and 201 seats and the Jan Ki Baat exit poll gave it anywhere between 141 and 161 seats.

News18

According to the India Today-My Axis poll, INDI alliance was estimated to get from 131 to 166 seats.

C Voter gave INDI alliance was estimated to get from 152 to 182 and the India News-D Dyanmics predicted it would bag 125 seats, while other parties would get 47 seats.

The Republic Bharat-Matrize poll said that INDI alliance would get around 118 to 133 seats and the Republic TV-PMARQ poll pegged it to get 154 seats.

The NDTV poll of polls puts gave the bloc 148 seats and India TV-CNX said it would get from 109 to 139 seats.

**Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav during a public meeting for Lok Sabha elections, in Varanasi on 28 May. PTI**

What happened in 2019

In 2019, the BJP, which was led by Narendra Modi, swept the elections winning 303 seats. The NDA won 352.

Congress was the second largest party with 52 seats and the United Progressive Alliance won 91.

What happened in 2014

2014 was when the first Modi wave gripped India.

The BJP won 282 seats in the lower house of Parliament. It was the first time after 1984 that a single party got a majority. The NDA bagged 336 seats.

The Congress party was reduced to a mere 44 seats. The UPA’s count was 60. This was a big slump from the earlier election when the Grand Old Party won 145 seats and formed the government under the United Progressive Alliance.

With inputs from agencies