No majority for BJP in Lok Sabha: What happens next? How important are Naidu and Nitish?

Before the election, the BJP-led NDA set itself the lofty goal of winning 400 seats in Parliament.

Three exit polls too predicted that the ‘400 par’ was a possibility, while the others said that the alliance would return stronger than ever.

On Tuesday, that didn’t happen.

While the NDA comfortably crossed the ‘magic mark’ of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha needed to form the government, it is nowhere close to that 400 prediction.

The BJP is also well down from the over 350 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Modi in his speech after the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, said his third term would see big decisions taken and uprooting corruption would be a priority.

“The fight against corruption is becoming tougher by the day. Corruption is being shamelessly glorified for political interest. In our third term, NDA will focus a lot on rooting out corruption of all kinds,” Modi said.

Modi’s speech did not refer to its reduced numbers in Parliament but focussed on the “clean sweep” victories in assembly elections as well as Lok Sabha wins in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Modi also said that the Congress has been wiped out in several states and pointed out that the combined number of seats won by the opposition alliance was less than that of the BJP alone.

But what happens next? How dependent is the BJP on its alliance partners? How important are Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar? What can we expect?

Let’s take a closer look:

By the numbers

The BJP, meanwhile, which pollsters uniformly predicted to return with an even bigger majority than its 303 seats in 2019, has won 192 seats and is leading in 42 seats.

Which means that the party cannot form the government on its own strength.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s alliance partners in the NDA – the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) – have won and are leading in 16 and 12 seats respectively.

The INDI alliance has racked up 234 seats with the Congress just one shy of the psychologically important three figure mark with its combined wins and leads.

The Samajwadi Party has won 33 seats and is leading in four seats, while the Trinamool Congress has won 22 seats and is leading in seven seats.

The BJP being the single-largest party will obviously be invited to form the next government.

Which is why its future is now in the hands of its allies.

Why Naidu and Nitish matter

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his first speech after the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections thanked TDP supremo Naidu and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar for the successes in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar

Modi and Shah earlier in the day dialled Naidu – who is set to return as Andhra Pradesh chief minister for the fourth time – and congratulated him on a remarkable comeback.

Modi and Shah’s outreach should come as no surprise given reports that Sharad Pawar, a senior leader in the INDIA alliance and a man known for having friends in high places across the political aisle, is in touch with Naidu.

Pawar, of course, has denied any such reports.

“I have not called up Chandrababu Naidu… Whatever is the outcome, after discussing with colleagues in the other INDIA allies, we shall share it publicly tomorrow,” Pawar was quoted as saying by Deccan Chronicle.

Indeed, the 74-year-old Naidu, who began his career with the Congress before jumping ship to his father-in-law’s TDP has been often described as a ‘political opportunist.’

Naidu, who split from the BJP in 2019, returned to the NDA fold for the 2024 polls.

Some would argue that this is Naidu’s last chance to be prime minister.

A piece in Indian Express, noting the reports of calls from INDI alliance leaders to Naidu, said the TDP chief may well be able to demand ‘several ministries’ in order to help the alliance take power.

Kumar, meanwhile, is so famed for switching sides that he has earned the nickname ‘paltu Ram.’

Kumar has been switching back and forth between camps since 2013.’

ABP News earlier on Tuesday reported that the INDI alliance has offered Kumar the post of deputy prime minister and Naidu special status for Andhra Pradesh to try to bring them over to their side.

A piece in the I_ndian Express_ noted how Nitish could play kingmaker or even be the king.

“The BJP will likely need the JD(U), the third-largest NDA party, to form the government. But given Nitish’s record, his support is not likely to make for a stable Centre. And he may leverage his performance to eke out a better deal with INDIA,” the piece argued.

While both Naidu and Kumar have reportedly assured the BJP of their support, only time will tell if the BJP makes both men an offer too good to refuse to keep them in the tent.

What happens next?

Experts say the BJP finds itself in an unfamiliar position.

A piece in BBC noted that the BJP going forward will be reliant on its partners and will thus need to take a more consultative and deliberative approach.

“This dependency makes it vulnerable to collapse if allies feel neglected. The party, once perceived as all-powerful, is now reliant on allies, unlike in 2014 and 2019,” the piece noted.

A piece in The Hindu noted the BJP now finds itself in the same position as it did in 1998 when Atal Behari Vajpayee established the first incarnation of the NDA.

“The 2024 Lok Sabha election result, which has left the BJP with less than a majority of seats, will likely lead to changes — not just in terms of how the coalition, if it fructifies in governmental terms, is run, but also in the internal dynamics of the BJP,” the piece argued.

The piece, stating that Naidu and Kumar had both received offers from the INDI alliance, noted that Modi now has to play a new role – of a conciliatory consensus maker.

The piece predicted that the BJP will put its uniform civil code and ‘One Nation one polls’ plank on the backburner.

It also said it may bring back the post of NDA convener if the numbers hold.

“More than anything else, Tuesday’s poll outcome may result in a more conciliatory position from the BJP and the Prime Minister,” the piece stated.

Others say a return to Vajpayee’s coalition dharma is imminent.

Political scientist Ashwani Kumar of the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) told The Hindu, “Given the rich tradition of centrist politics in India, the BJP is set to enter into the Rajdharma of rainbow coalition, reverting to Atal Behari Vajpayee’s consensual politics of governance [while] reinventing the idea of cooperative federalism. Thus, let’s expect what a legendary political scientist called a ‘consocial’ or power sharing democracy, within the majoritarian polity of India,” he said.

“India will likely have an NDA government, where the BJP does not have a majority on their own, and coalition politics will come into real play,” Sandeep Shastri, the national coordinator of the Lokniti Network told Al Jazeera.

“There will be questions on imagining Modi as a leader of the alliance, where he would have to listen to non-BJP leaders much more,” Shastri predicted.

Modi’s victory speech at the BJP headquarters, however, was thin on politics and heavy on the future roadmap of his government, which he noted was coming for the third consecutive time, a first in six decades.

“Our Constitution is our guiding light. I want to assure that the Centre will work with all states, irrespective of the party in power there, to work towards our resolve to make India a developed country,” Modi said.

The prime minister arrived at the BJP headquarters to a rousing welcome by hundreds of supporters who chanted ‘Modi, Modi’. He was greeted by BJP President J P Nadda and Union Ministers Rajnath Singh and Amit Shah on the dais.

The backdrop on the stage had ‘Dhanyawad Bharat’ written in various languages, including Urdu.

Modi began his speech with ‘Jai Jagannath’ and thanked the people of Odisha for giving BJP a clear mandate for the first time.

With inputs from agencies