A heatwave is hitting North India, including Delhi: How intense will it be?

There is a noticeable change in the weather patterns in India.

The climate in the nation is harsh; in one section, there is a terrible heatwave, while in the other, there is precipitation.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), several North Indian states will experience “severe heatwave conditions” in the next few days.

Let’s take a closer look

Severe heatwave in North India

An orange alert has been issued for Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, indicating a “high health concern” for those at risk.

According to the IMD, northwest India will see sultry conditions for the next five days.

“Severe heatwave conditions are very likely in some parts of west Rajasthan during 17-20 May and in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi during 18-20 May,” the weather agency said.

By Saturday, the temperature in the National Capital can rise to 45 degrees Celsius, as per News18.

In addition, the Met office issued an orange alert for these four states, highlighting the “high health concern” for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and those suffering from chronic illnesses.

With temperatures expecting to cross the 40-degree-Celsius mark, from Friday to Monday, parts of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and West Rajasthan are expected to see “severe heatwave conditions," the Met department said.

It cautioned that people who labour hard or spend a lot of time in the sun may be more prone to heat-related ailments.

With temperatures reaching 46 degrees Celsius in certain locations, Rajasthan saw the highest readings on Thursday.

According to IMD, similar weather was seen in numerous areas of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh, where temperatures were two to three degrees above average.

More on heatwave: 

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Severe heatwave in India: Why this April has been warmer than previous years

Is a near-permanent heatwave coming to the Indian Ocean?

Fresh heatwave spell over east and central India

A new scorching phase will also start over east and central India on 18 May, as per the report.

Additionally, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha were all under a yellow alert from the weather office.

“There is no immediate chance of rain. There is also a subsidence of hot air, which is heating the surface due to an anticyclone over northwest India. Soon, there will be advection of hot air towards UP and Bihar also. Conditions will remain very hot for the next seven days," IMD director general M Mohapatra said, according to Hindustan Times.

The lateral movement of heated air caused by winds is known as advection.

In the northern plains and central India, the Met Office had already forecasted a higher-than-normal number of blistering temperatures in May.

For the uninitiated, anomalies in temperature rather than high temperatures define heatwaves, explained Indian Express.

If a region normally experiences 40 degrees and hits a maximum of 42-43 degrees, it cannot be considered to be in heatwave.

Conversely, if another region, whose normal temperature is 27-28 degrees, then that place would be considered to be experiencing a heatwave as its temperature is around 35 degrees.

Rainfall in southern states

As opposed to the upper region, the IMD has forecast rainfall and thunderstorms in some areas of southern India as the southwest monsoon is projected to enter the south Andaman Sea, portions of the Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands on Sunday, as per Indian Express.

Rainfall and thunderstorms are expected during the upcoming week across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Karnataka, Kerala, and coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

While Kerala and Tamil Nadu are under a “very heavy rainfall” advisory from the IMD through Monday, the other states could expect mild showers over these days.

Additionally, IMD has issued a flood warning for Tamil Nadu, as per Hindustan Times.

On Friday and Saturday, isolated pockets of light rain and thunderstorms are predicted in parts of Maharashtra and Goa.

Over the course of the next week, the states should expect moderate to heavy rainfall in addition to the northeast’s high humidity.

Light to moderate rain is expected in West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, according to the IMD prediction.

On the other hand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, and Sikkim should expect further rain on Sunday and Monday.

The extreme heatwave this year

May typically brings three days of heatwaves to the northern plains, central India, and the surrounding peninsular regions of India.

In April, the eastern, northeastern, and southern peninsulas of India saw unprecedented high temperatures, leading to health advisories from governmental bodies and the suspension of standard classroom instruction in several regions.

With the temperature reaching 47 degrees Celsius, several locations reached their highest-ever April day highs.

In Kerala, heatstroke is reported to have killed at least two people.

IMD data indicates that the number of heatwave days in April was the highest in nine years in Odisha and fifteen years in Gangetic West Bengal.

In addition, Odisha saw its longest heatwave (16 days) since 2016.

Climate change

Prominent climate scientists stated on Wednesday that comparable heatwaves might happen every 30 years.

Climate change has already made them roughly 45 times more likely.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group underlined that heatwaves exacerbated by climate change are significantly worsening living conditions for poor people across Asia.

In the midst of the ongoing, albeit waning, El Nino, the IMD had already issued an alert about extreme temperatures in India in April and May, which overlapped with the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections that conclude on 4 June.

With inputs from agencies