SP, TDP, JDU…regional parties emerge as key players in 2024

The mercurial rise of the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election pushed regional parties into the periphery of the national politics in a departure from the trend of the past two decades. In fact, regional parties started playing a decisive role post the fall of the VP Singh government in 1990. The PV Narasimha Rao government was a minority government, depending for its survival on regional players like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).

From 1996, when the BJP emerged as the single-largest party but resigned before the government could prove its majority, regional parties dominated the national political scene until 2014, when the saffron party secured a majority of its own. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh had tough times managing the affairs of the central government with regional party leaders — from Tamil Nadu in south to Uttar Pradesh in north.

With the BJP securing a majority of its own — a first in 30 years — and Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerging as a towering leader, regional parties lost their bargaining power in national politics. The 2024 Lok Sabha election may give them their bargaining power once again.

The trends from the Election Commission’s dashboard show that the BJP leading between 240 and 250 Lok Sabha seats while the NDA is heading to a majority in the House. The majority comes on the back of the performance of the parties such as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) of former Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu and the Janata Dal-United of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar.

At the same time, the BJP, which is staring at an upset in Uttar Pradesh, has seemingly been undone by the Samajwadi Party of former CM Akhilesh Yadav.

Here’s how the top five regional parties are performing in the Lok Sabha election:

TDP

The TDP has returned to power in Andhra Pradesh, defeating the YSR Congress Party of the outgoing CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, in the state polls that were held along with the Lok Sabha election. It is leading the NDA in Andhra Pradesh with a combined tally of 157, as per the latest Election Commission figures. The YSRCP was ahead at only 18 seats.

In the Lok Sabha election, the TDP is on course to win 16 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats. Its allies — the BJP and the Janasena Party of Pawan Kalyan — are leading at five other seats.

JDU

The JDU, which was being written just before the Lok Sabha election, is returning with a good strike rate. It is ahead in 14 of the 16 constituencies it contested in Bihar, which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha.

This means the JDU and the TDP may be powering the BJP to stay in power at the Centre in Modi 3.0.

Samajwadi Party

Among the Opposition camp, the Samajwadi Party has caused a major upset in Uttar Pradesh, surging ahead in 35 of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies of the state. Uttar Pradesh has been the strongest bastion of the BJP in 2014 and 2019 elections, giving the party 71 and 62 Lok Sabha seats respectively.

The Akhilesh Yadav-led party’s strong show in the parliamentary polls comes on the back of another electoral defeat in the Assembly polls held in 2022, despite a significant improvement in performance. It won 111 Assembly seats — 65 up from 2017 — but could not stop the BJP from returning to power for the second consecutive time with a decisive majority.

TMC

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is leading in 30 constituencies. Her party had won 22 seats from Bengal, which sends 42 members to the Lok Sabha. This makes the TMC the third-biggest party in the Opposition INDIA bloc after the Congress and the SP.

DMK

With the AIADMK having weakened following the death of former Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa, the DMK led by incumbent CM MK Stalin is leading in 21 constituencies in the state that has 39 Lok Sabha seats. The DMK won 24 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.