Why UK PM Rishi Sunak has called for early elections on 4 July

Standing at the lectern outside 10 Downing Street amid the grey English drizzle, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced what Britons have long wanted to know — when will the general elections be held. The answer: 4 July.

The announcement comes amid growing expectation that the election would be held in the months of September to October, giving Sunak at least two years in office, and giving the government time to prove its credentials.

The poll will be the first time 44-year-old Sunak faces the public while in charge, after he was appointed leader of the largest party in parliament by Conservative MPs in October 2022. It will also be the third vote since the Brexit referendum of 2016.

But why did Sunak pull the trigger now? What happens next?

‘Time to choose’

On Wednesday (23 May), Britain’s prime minister Rishi Sunak called for a national election on 4 July, saying Britons would be able to choose their future.

“Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future and decide whether it wants to build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one and no certainty,” said the 44-year-old leader.

“Over the next few weeks, I will fight for every vote, I will earn your trust and I will prove to you that only a Conservative government led by me will not put our hard earned economic stability at risk.”

He also accused Labour leader Keir Starmer, conversely, of always taking the “easy way out” and of having no plan. “As a result, the future can only be uncertain with them,” he said.

Sunak’s announcement, though surprising, isn’t all together shocking. There’s been speculation that he would call for an election in summer, rather than wait for October or November as expected. The rumours intensified after the Office for National Statistics said early Wednesday that inflation slowed to 2.3 per cent in April, near to the Bank of England’s target and well down from a high of 11 per cent in October 2022.

Moreover, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps delayed a trip to the Baltic states by a few hours and Foreign Secretary David Cameron returned early from Albania to attend the Cabinet meeting.

Interestingly, this will be the country’s first July election since 1945 when Labour leader Clement Attlee won a majority of 145. Moreover, the campaign for the elections will be amid the Euro 2024 football tournament, while polling day will be just before the quarter finals.

Labour reacts

Shortly after Sunak made the announcement of the polls, Labour leader Keir Starmer , who is widely expected to become the next prime minister, made a televised statement, saying the polls gave voters the chance to bring about change.

“Here it is. The future of the country in your hands,” he said.

“On 4 July you have the choice. And together, we can stop the chaos. We can turn the page. We can start to rebuild Britain, and change our country.”

Timing is everything

But why did Sunak call for earlier polls? Are the odds in his favour?

No. In fact, his party, the Conservatives (Tories) are staring at a massive drubbing; they are trailing 20 points behind the Labour party. And that’s probably why Sunak thought it best to call for an early poll, surprising the Labour party.

Sunak hopes that the element of surprise will serve as an advantage to the UK government and that the current outlook among the public couldn’t get any better. As The Telegraph reports, the logic in Number 10 was that, all things considered, July makes for the least bad option.

For instance, hours before Sunak called for polls, the Office for National Statistics announced that inflation had finally almost hit the all-important two per cent target. This means that Sunak can use it as a plank for the polls.

Moreover, the Rwanda deportation scheme has been passed into law, and experts say that it shows that he has at least one thing that looks like he’s got under control.

However, what many believe was the key factor in pushing the polls forward is the series of big spending commitments, including a £10 billion compensation package for infected blood scandal victims and money for victims of the Post Office scandal , means there will be left for tax cuts in an autumn budget. And if the budget isn’t going to create the buzz, the government would wish, then there is point waiting any longer.

One Tory insider told The Telegraph: “They have been clearing the decks with big spending plans, which means there won’t be any money left for an autumn statement. And if you haven’t got any money to give away before the election, what are you waiting for?”

There’s also a tactical reason behind Sunak’s early poll announcement. Some believe that Reform UK, a right-wing populist party, could cut Tory votes. Hence, by calling an early election, it denies them time to prepare.

There are some who also believe that Sunak’s call for an early election may have something to do with the fact that he isn’t necessarily enjoying being at 10 Downing. The Politico reports that tasked with the impossible, and living in a cramped flat must seem less appealing.

The future awaits

So, what comes next? First off, Sunak has been given the power from King Charles to dissolve parliament. This means that after 30 May, the current parliament formally ceases to exist, and its MPs become candidates. They will have to convince voters that they should be re-elected.

As for Sunak, if opinion polls are to be believed, he’s staring at a massive drubbing. Most experts expect a relatively comfortable victory for Labour and Starmer. The YouGov/Times voting intention poll has the Conservatives on 20 per cent and Labour on 47 per cent, while an average of major polls collated by The Economist gives Labour a 23-point lead.

We will have to wait until 4 July now to see what happens next. But as The Telegraph notes, for Sunak, it is undoubtedly the biggest gamble of his life.

With inputs from agencies