When Modi equals Nehru’s stupendous record and yet BJP is seen as losing

Albert Hastorf and Hadly Cantril came up with a paper in 1954, They Saw a Game: A Case Study, which analysed what proved to be a selective perception of a college football match between the Dartmouth Indians and Princeton Tigers. It was a closely contested game, with several injuries and penalties, at the end of which Princeton won the match.

Later, Hastorf and Cantril had Dartmouth and Princeton psychology students fill out a questionnaire regarding the game. Students from rival universities reported seeing more fouls committed by the other team.

We see what we want to see!

This case of selective perception is equally true for Indian elections.

On the face of it, the 2024 results are a setback for the BJP. The saffron party’s numbers have come down significantly, from 303 in 2019 to 240 this time. But when one looks at the numbers from the perspective that the BJP has been in power for the past 10 years, then it appears to be an incredible achievement—a feat that has been repeated only once in India’s post-Independence history, and that too over six decades ago by Jawaharlal Nehru.

Statistically, the BJP is still not just the No. 1 party in the country; its tally also exceeds the total seats won by the Opposition INDI alliance.

But then, when one looks at the TV channels debating and discussing the Lok Sabha results, Hastorf and Cantril’s selective perception comes to the fore. It seems as if the BJP has lost the elections. In fact, one senior Congress leader was even congratulated during a TV show for the party’s “good performance”.

Ironically, Rahul Gandhi’s Congress is a success story, despite failing to reach a three-figure tally for three successive terms—and the BJP is in the doldrums even when it alone has scored more than the total INDI alliance tally!

The BJP is a victim of its own high ambition. When a party gives a slogan like “400 ke paar” for its alliance, then even a resounding 292 seems like a setback. The party first sold a dream and then bought the same idea when exit polls, almost unanimously, projected similar results in favour of the BJP. Any party getting 240 Lok Sabha seats is a credible performance, more so when it has been in power for two consecutive terms.

Also, the BJP getting around 240 seats would leave governance largely unhampered. The problem will emerge when the lead party gets around 220 or fewer seats, which doesn’t seem to be the case this time.

This is the first time that PM Modi will lead a coalition government. It would be interesting to see how he knits a coalition government together, but given his political heft, it shouldn’t be too onerous a task for him.

This, however, doesn’t mean all is well within the BJP. The party needs to especially analyse its performance in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan—the three big states that have BJP-led governments. And it is in these three states that the saffron party has lost the bulk of seats—more than 50 in total. Then, of course, there is the BJP’s below-par performance in West Bengal, where even its detractors gave the party about two dozen seats.

The UP performance will particularly hurt the BJP. The state seemed to be cruising well under the BJP dispensation, with Modi-Yogi jugalbandi being the talk of the town. But something did falter in between. Was it just about the fatigue factor hitting the BJP? Or, was Rahul Gandhi able to woo away a section of BJP voters with competitive but utterly irresponsible dole politics?

In conversation with this writer, one political analyst recalled meeting a number of rural voters in Uttar Pradesh: “Das sal Modi ko diye. Ek baar Rahul ko de kar dekh lete hain, who kitna deta hai. Ek lakh salana bol raha hai. Deta bhi hai ki nahin. (We have 10 years to Modi. Let’s now give Rahul a chance and see how much he delivers on his dole promises of Rs 1 lakh).” Or, was it the case for the BJP being a divided house, with the social media being full of stories about a section of its core supporters not voting for the party for fear of a leadership change in the state?

The BJP also needs to curb its temptation of ‘importing’ leaders from other political parties. There had been a severe heartburn among the core BJP cadre this time due to liberal ticket distribution in favour of those who flocked to the saffron party just before the polls. This annoyed and upset a number of old party workers.

Also, the party needs to realise the efficacy of grandiose slogans like “400 ke paar”. Such slogans do enthuse party workers, but they also tend to make them complacent and lazy. One common narrative through several constituencies of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, especially among core BJP voters, was that since the party was getting 400 seats, they could afford to lose a few seats here and there. Given this ‘comfortable’ position, the local BJP voters were tempted to air their local grievances, thinking this would be confined to that particular constituency. The problem for the BJP was that many people in many constituencies were having similar thoughts.

Be that as it may, the BJP needs to celebrate, though with cautious restraint, the poll results. It’s rare to see a Central government come to power three times in a row, and that too with a comfortable pre-poll alliance majority. With the right lessons learned and by plugging in a few obvious loopholes, dusting away a creeping sense of complacency, and doing away with growing temptations for ideological deviancy, the BJP can be battle-ready again. It all, however, depends on how the BJP leadership internalises the poll results.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.