Why Nitish Kumar may not switch sides this time

Speculation has been rife about what Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal-United (JDU) president Nitish Kumar’s stand would be in the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which got a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Social media is flooded with memes about Nitish Kumar’s future moves. Dubbed “Paltu Ram” by his arch-rival in Bihar Lalu Pradesh, Nitish has shifted his loyalties from one coalition to another since the rise of Narendra Modi in national politics in 2013.

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With 12 Members of Parliament at his command as the JDU president, Nitish along with Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N Chandrababu Naidu, is a key pillar to keep the BJP on treasury benches in Parliament. The BJP got 240 seats in the Lok Sabha election. The NDA got 292 seats in the 543-member House. Other allies of the BJP will have single-digit occupancy in the 18th Lok Sabha, once constituted.

Why speculate Nitish’s role if he is in NDA

Speculation about the JDU president’s role got intense after a video of him flying the same flight to Delhi as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, the son of Lalu Prasad, and former Bihar deputy CM under Nitish. Nitish was flying to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi to give his letter of support for staking a claim to form the next government at the Centre. Tejashwi was flying to participate in the Opposition INDIA bloc meeting at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s residence.

This happened against the backdrop of a JDU MLC Khalid Anwar saying, “There is nobody better than Nitish Kumar to become the prime minister in the country.”

Nitish was a key founder-member of INDIA bloc in 2023. It was his idea to challenge the BJP in 400 constituencies by presenting one common candidate on each seat. However, differences over who could be the convener of the INDIA bloc and who might be the face to seek for the next government created an atmosphere of discomfort for Nitish Kumar in the Opposition grouping.

Why Nitish may not switch sides just yet

In Bihar, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad’s reported pressure on Nitish to make way for his son Tejashwi in the chief ministerial role finally pushed the JDU president to switch sides and join hands with the BJP. At his latest switch, Nitish said, “I have been here and there. Everybody knows. Now, I am back with the NDA. We were together earlier also. I will not go to any other formation again.”

It is the same reason that makes Nitish stay with NDA. Sources in the know of things in Patna say that going back to the INDIA bloc is not a viable option for Nitish Kumar at this point of time. There is no indication that Lalu Prasad won’t be pressing for the chief minister’s position for his son, practically bringing an end to Nitish’s political career. He is 73 and sees his future in politics for a few more years.

INDIA bloc is too unstable for Nitish to take the gamble

There’s another factor that makes it an improbable move for Nitish to switch over to the INDIA bloc. The Opposition grouping, despite its robust showing in the Lok Sabha election, is a fragmented body. The Congress is below the psychological three-figure mark. It is partnering with the Trinamool Congress it fought in West Bengal, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) it fought in Kerala and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) it fought in Punjab.

Having been a veteran of coalition politics since the days he tied up with the BJP leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, Nitish knows the vagaries of an Indian political coalition involving too many parties where the lead party is not that strong. Had the Congress won, say 150 seats, it could have been a different proposition for Nitish Kumar. But given the positions of the parties in the upcoming Lok Sabha, it is only fair for the JDU to stay with a more stable coalition.

What Nitish may gain by staying with the NDA

In the previous two Modi governments, the BJP had a majority of its own yet it gave ministerial berths to its pre-poll alliance partners. The terms of representation in the Council of Ministers were restrictive for non-BJP NDA constituents — one minister for one party. The BJP had to accommodate its own MPs, catering to the political compulsions of various states.

Now that the BJP is not enjoying a majority of its own, its allies can authoritatively demand more ministerial berths at the Centre. Nitish’s party, which had stayed away from the government refusing to have just one ministerial berth, is likely to get at least three ministerial positions including a couple of Cabinet ranks.

There is more. With a better-than-expected performance of the JDU in the Lok Sabha election, Nitish Kumar can now claim to be the NDA’s chief ministerial face in the next year’s Bihar Assembly election.

The BJP has been pushing to have its own CM face in Bihar but having been in power only in alliance with Nitish Kumar, the party could never find one pan-state credible face. It is likely that the BJP will trade this arrangement for a greater stability of the third Modi government at the Centre. This is something Nitish is not certain to get if he were to join the INDIA bloc as Tejashwi Yadav is not only young and ambitious but has also become assertive in his political dealings.