Why this Shangri-La Dialogue is big for a defence minister, three countries and world peace

With every passing edition, Shangri-La Dialogue has increasingly become China-centric reflecting the country’s growing influence and the global concern over its strategic actions. While the dialogue addresses a broad range of security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, discussions often focus heavily on China’s military expansion, territorial disputes and geopolitical strategies. This prominence is driven by China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea, its Belt and Road Initiative and its evolving military capabilities significantly influencing regional and global security.

China and Shangri-La Dialogue 2024

Admiral Dong Jun, China’s first naval officer to be appointed as defence minister, will make his debut appearance before an international audience. He assumed the position in December last year, following the brief tenure of his predecessor, Li Shangfu. According to the South China Morning Post, Admiral Dong brings extensive military experience. From 2017 to 2021, he held the position of deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command, responsible for overseeing operations in the South China Sea. In 2013 and 2014, he was part of the East Sea Fleet, operating in the Taiwan Strait. Both regions are significant flashpoints for China. Additionally, Dong has served in the North Sea Fleet.

Admiral Dong is expected to meet US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the upcoming meeting. This potential encounter in Singapore would be their first in-person dialogue following a video call in April. While the Pentagon has announced Austin’s plans to meet his Chinese counterpart, neither the Pentagon nor Chinese officials have provided further details about the meeting. Beijing will be closely observing Admiral Dong’s performance as he needs to project strength and establish his credentials.

Currently, Admiral Dong is not a member of the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, the decision-making body under President Xi Jinping. His role primarily involves military diplomacy with limited influence over actual military operations.

China’s participation in the dialogue comes just days after conducting a large-scale, two-day military drill encircling Taiwan. This exercise was a response to Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te’s inauguration speech on 20 May, which China perceived as provocative. The drills drew criticism from several countries including the US, Japan, Australia and the European Union.

Putting the ball on US court

Ahead of the highly anticipated Austin-Dong meeting, Chinese media has been emphasising that the responsibility for mending Washington’s ties with Beijing lies with the US.

Effective communication on defence matters is essential for managing mutual differences, yet China seeks greater sincerity from the US concerning its core interests and security concerns. The Global Times, citing experts, expressed that China hopes for meaningful dialogue rather than engagements merely for political show.

Despite this, the Chinese state media acknowledged Defence Secretary Austin’s commitment to meeting Admiral Dong in person at the Shangri-La Dialogue, especially considering his recent medical procedure. They noted that diplomatic relations have gradually improved since the summit between the Chinese and US heads of state in San Francisco in November 2023. This thaw follows the freezing of formal military-to-military meetings in August 2022 after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

China expects the discussions to address Taiwan and South China Sea issues reflecting their importance in the bilateral relationship.

Past concerns and criticisms

In May 2023, US-China interactions were strained as Defence Secretary Austin did not meet with his Chinese counterpart, Li Shangfu, following the fallout from then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Tensions escalated further in February with the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon over US territory. This incident compounded existing issues including close encounters between US and Chinese fighter jets over the South China Sea and naval vessels in the Taiwan Strait.

The 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue was similarly challenging for China. Countries such as Australia and Canada openly criticised Beijing for violating international laws citing dangerous maneuvers by Chinese jets that jeopardised the safety of military personnel. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that Japan had no choice but to increase its defence budget and acquire advanced weaponry to protect itself. The South China Sea remains a hotbed of maritime security tensions with China having militarised various artificial islands within the 1.3 million square mile waterway.

Why is the Shangri-La Dialogue significant this year?

This year’s Shangri-La Dialogue holds particular significance due to the multitude of complex global issues currently at play including US-China relations, China-Taiwan tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, unrest in Myanmar, the US role in the Indo-Pacific, maritime security in the Indian and Pacific oceans and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

This year’s edition will feature Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr delivering the keynote speech to open the 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. He is expected to reaffirm his country’s stance on the contested South China Sea where tensions with China have been rising.

The three-day summit traditionally begins on a Friday and concludes on a Sunday. The event kicks off with a keynote address typically delivered by a head of state. For instance, in his keynote address on 31 May, 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described India-China relations as multifaceted and emphasised that both Asia and the world would benefit from India and China working together with mutual trust and confidence considering each other’s interests. Prime Minister Modi was the first Indian premier to speak at the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Birth of the Shangri-La Dialogue

The origins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, officially known as the IISS Asia Security Summit, date back to 2001 when Sir John Chipman, then Director-General and Chief Executive of The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), identified a crucial need for a forum that would enable defence ministers and military chiefs from 28 Asia-Pacific countries to discuss regional security. This platform was designed to promote open communication, build trust and foster practical security cooperation.

Inspired by the Munich Conference on Security Policy, Chipman envisioned creating a Track One organisation dedicated to regional security dynamics. Initial outreach efforts targeted ASEAN members and invitations were extended to establish a regional security framework. Singapore, led by then president SR Nathan, embraced the concept enthusiastically. In February 2001, Chipman presented the idea to president Nathan, who pledged unwavering support until IISS could independently manage the conference. Consequently, Singapore became the host country, with the iconic Shangri-La Hotel serving as the venue since 2002. The dialogue takes its name from this location.

The inaugural dialogue saw participation from 14 defence ministers and 160 delegates with the United States represented by its deputy defence secretary, according to Channel News Asia. Over the years, the summit has expanded its invitation list and sessions. By the fifth year, high-level officials from China began participating, and by 2018, nearly 50 countries were represented.

The Shangri-La Dialogue now attracts legislators, academic experts, journalists and business delegates from around the world making it a premier platform for public policy development and discussions on defence and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

This year’s event will be held in Singapore from 31 May to 2 June.