Why UK PM Rishi Sunak was fact-checked by his own government

In a pre-election debate, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faced significant scrutiny when the UK Treasury contradicted his claim that Labour’s policies would increase taxes for every working family by £2,000. This revelation comes at a critical time, with the UK general election less than one month away and the Conservative Party trailing in opinion polls.

During the televised debate between Sunak and Labour party leader Keir Starmer , the former asserted, “Independent Treasury officials have costed Labour’s policies, and they amount to a £2,000 tax rise for every working family.”

However, the UK’s top Treasury official, James Bowler, swiftly rebutted this assertion. In a letter dated June 3, Bowler stated, “Civil servants were not involved in the production or presentation of the Conservative Party’s document ‘Labour’s Tax Rises’ or in the calculation of the total figure used.”

The Conservative document claimed Labour would need to find £38.5 billion to meet its spending commitments, suggesting this would require either borrowing or a £2,094 per working household tax increase over the next four years.

In response to my letter, civil servants confirmed they had told Tory ministers they were not allowed to say their dodgy attacks on Labour were independently done by civil servants.

Last night Rishi Sunak did it anyway.

He lied to the British people.

He must apologise. pic.twitter.com/61bXB1Towu

— Darren Jones (@darrenpjones) June 5, 2024

Bowler highlighted that he had cautioned senior Conservative officials against implying that the £38.5 billion figure was based on Treasury analysis.

How did Labour react?

Labour seized the opportunity to criticise Sunak, with Rachel Reeves, Labour’s top economic policy official, stating, “The letter from the permanent secretary of the Treasury confirms what Labour have said last night, that the prime minister lied in the debate last night.” She reinforced Labour’s stance, “Labour will not be increasing taxes on working people. I am very clear about that.”

Sunak, however, doubled down on his claim, releasing a video on social media depicting a giant piggy bank floating in the sky and repeating the assertion that Labour’s policies would result in higher taxes.

It couldn’t have been clearer in last night’s debate.

Keir Starmer’s tax rises will cost working families £2,094. pic.twitter.com/dVKDb699Jb

— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) June 5, 2024

This ongoing dispute has intensified as the election approaches, with Sunak striving to maintain credibility while Labour seeks to capitalise on the controversy.

Fact-checking the debate:

The debate also covered various pressing issues such as the cost of living, NHS waiting times, and immigration. Sunak assured the public that the economy is growing and that he has a plan that is working. Economist Michael Nower supported this to some extent, noting that household costs are improving, though mortgage costs and non-essential expenses continue to rise, reported The Conversation.

Starmer countered, accusing the government of losing control of the economy and imposing undue burdens on working people. Academics Matthew T. Johnson and Matthew Flinders argued that Labour could offer more ambitious spending plans, highlighting public support for progressive wealth taxes and increased corporation tax.

The leaders also sparred over NHS waiting times, with Sunak blaming industrial action and Starmer criticising the government’s management. Survey data showed that the public is more likely to blame politicians than striking doctors for waiting times.

UK immigration and asylum

The debate also addressed immigration, with Sunak proposing annual caps on legal migration and defending his controversial Rwanda plan for asylum seekers . Despite Sunak’s insistence that the plan would be a deterrent, as part of The Conversation, academics like Matilde Rosina argue that such strategies often fail to reduce migration and merely change its nature.

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Starmer, in contrast, opposed pulling the UK out of the European Court of Human Rights, a move Sunak suggested might help implement the Rwanda plan. Joelle Grogan of King’s College London warned that leaving the ECHR would harm the UK’s international reputation without effectively addressing migration issues.

Tax pledges and pension promises

Both leaders pledged not to raise national insurance, income tax, or VAT, though public skepticism remains high regarding how they would fund their spending commitments.

Sunak pointed to his “triple lock plus” pledge for pensions, ensuring state pensioners would never pay tax on the state pension. Economist Jonquil Lowe questioned the policy’s effectiveness, suggesting it might not be the best use of resources given the state of public services.

Young people’s concerns

In response to a young audience member’s concerns about the difficulties faced by his generation, Sunak proposed introducing national service, which was met with visible displeasure. Specialist Jo Aubrey echoed this sentiment, emphasising that young people have already faced significant challenges and should not be asked for more.

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As the first of several debates, this event highlighted the sharp contrasts between the two leaders’ visions for the UK. While opinion polls, like a YouGov snap poll, indicated a narrow win for Sunak with 51 per cent of viewers favouring his performance over Starmer’s 49 per cent, the fallout from Bowler’s letter may undermine Sunak’s integrity pledge and impact the Conservative Party’s standing.

With inputs from agencies