With Narendra Modi-led ruling National Democratic Alliance’s historic third-term victory in India’s parliamentary election, the world is watching his government’s next move as India’s trajectory under his leadership promises to reshape not only the nation but also its role on the global stage.
Modi’s vision of India as a “vishwaguru” — a guiding force for the world — has been a focal point of his campaign, and now, with the mandate secured, the path ahead unfolds with both challenges and opportunities.
In the bustling streets of New Delhi, the air is thick with anticipation. The election results have been announced, and PM Modi is set to take oath this week . The Rashtrapati Bhavan has closed the premises for public viewing till 9 June to prepare for the oath-taking ceremony.
Despite a truncated majority, it’s a win that signals more than just political stability. Modi’s triumph resonates across Asia and beyond with several world leaders including Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Sri Lanka’s Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Maldives’ Mohamed Muizzu congratulating the Indian prime minister.
The story of a nation on the move
Modi’s return to power signals a continued push for economic reforms that have seen India emerge as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Subsidies for domestic production echo through the corridors of power, promising a boost to semiconductor firms and electric vehicle makers. The goal is clear: to position India as a formidable alternative to China’s dominance in global supply chains.
Modi also plans to reduce import taxes on key inputs for locally-made goods, which have increased India’s manufacturing costs, Reuters recently quoted unnamed Union government officials as saying.
The Modi government has been pitching India as an alternative for quite some time now for global firms diversifying their supply chains from China.
As a fast-growing economy, India has a booming tech sector on one hand and a struggling legacy economy, on the other, that doesn’t provide enough jobs for its growing youth population. Against this background, manufacturing emerges as a viable job-creating sector.
Under the previous Modi government, India successfully lured some of the suppliers for major US corporations including Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google. India, however, has a long way to go with just about three per cent of global manufacturing happening in the country. China, which India is aiming to compete with, has 24 per cent share in global manufacturing, World Bank data shows.
Quoting official documents, Reuters has reported that the Modi government plans to increase India’s share of global manufacturing to five per cent by 2030 and 10 per cent by 2047. This will require reforms for proposal clearance, labour employment in factories and tariff laws.
A push to global multilateralism with strong national identity
Modi’s ambitions stretch farther than economic prowess. He envisions a nation that leads with a strong national identity, yet embraces global multilateralism. The solar treaty stands as a testament to this, a beacon of global cooperation for clean energy.
And as the world grapples with the spectre of war in the Middle East and Europe amid looming possibility of military conflicts around South China Sea, Modi’s voice rings out with a message of peace, distinguishing him as the only major world leader advocating for dialogue over conflict.
In his attempts to bring peace to Europe, which has failed to contain Russia from pummelling regions of Ukraine, Modi told Vladimir Putin that “today’s era is not the era of war”.
Modi’s government is pressing for a reform of the UN Security Council with the world’s most populous nation and fastest-growing major economy a permanent seat on the elite panel.
“Modi will be one of the most senior leaders on the global circuit and that too with three election victories under his belt,” AFP quoted Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. “He has set out major ambitions for himself and India and it’s unlikely that he would compromise on his legacy.”
India has interests, not allies
Under Modi, India has departed from a number of traditional signposts of foreign policy. The most significant of them is that India now has interests rather than allies to follow in its international relations.
This becomes an interesting approach as the United States and European nations see India as a counterweight to China. US president Joe Biden hosted Modi for a state dinner in 2023. Biden has described US-India ties as the “defining partnership of the 21st Century”.
India’s growing global footprint has served Modi in the domestic circuit as well. His and his party leaders cite this ascendance of India to bolster Modi and his government’s image. The G20 presidency last year is an example. Modi successfully made G20 events talking points domestically and internationally.
Despite sharp criticism from the West over its trade ties with Russia amid its war with Ukraine, India continued to engage with its BRICS partner. To the critics from the West, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”
Russia remains by far India’s biggest arms supplier. India has not explicitly condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, abstained on UN resolutions censuring the Putin regime, and substantially ramped up crude oil imports from Russia at a discounted price. In March this year, Modi congratulated Putin on his re-election as Russia’s president, saying he looked forward to developing their “special” relationship.
A boost to the Quad in the Asia-Pacific
Modi’s third term could focus on building on a decade of his diplomatic ambitions, particularly in the US, Europe, Russia and Global South besides engaging robustly in strategic groupings like Quad.
China’s muscle-flexing in the Asia-Pacific region has made the Quad a crucial force to nurture. India is part of the Quad that also has the US, Japan and Australia as members. China has difficult, at times adversarial relations, with all these countries — to the extent that Australia has opened its military to recruit non-citizens from its ally nations.
The Quad has positioned itself against China’s growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region. Earlier this year, the US approved a $4 billion sale of state-of-the-art drones to India. These drones are likely to be used to counterbalance its northern neighbour.
India also has growing ties with European countries, and hopes to expand multi-billion-dollar defence deals with France, including the sale of Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene-class submarines.
Expect more on Global South
Modi also portrays India as a leader of the Global South , with himself a chief spokesperson for the loose grouping, and another five years in office gives him greater authority and seniority among the world’s most powerful, despite his reduced parliamentary muscle.
Modi has been a votary of empowering the developing and the underdeveloped nations, identifying India “a strong and important voice of the Global South”. India last year hosted two “Voice of the Global South” summits, seeking to strengthen its role as a representative of Asian, African and South American nations.
It was under Modi’s watch that the African Union bloc became a permanent member of the G20, when India presided over the grouping. India argued that developing nations needed a greater say in global decision-making.
What’s in for neighbours?
China has emerged as a concern for India as a nagging neighbour. China and India along with Russia are members of the two key multilateral groupings — BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — yet the relations between the world’s two most populous countries slumped in 2020 after Beijing allowed its troops to attempt altering status quo along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. The troops of the two nations fought a deadly high-altitude skirmish along their 3,500-kilometre frontier.
Tens of thousands of troops from the nuclear-armed Asian giants continue to eyeball each other and territorial claims fester, but despite their rivalry China is India’s second-largest trade partner. How this equation changes over the next five years will be a key development to track as India tries to match the military spending of China to boost its defences in the north. India last year increased its military spending by 13 per cent but it’s still less than a quarter of China’s.
China’s extension is also visible in Pakistan, which has had an adversarial relation with India barring phases of high anticipations of friendship to be followed by either a military adventure from Islamabad or terror attack on Indian soil. The Modi government has refused to engage with Pakistan after incidents like Uri and Pulwama attacks on the armed forces. This followed an invitation to Pakistan’s then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to his first swearing-in ceremony in 2014 and a surprise visit to Pakistan’s Lahore to attend his counterpart’s family function.
There are, however, signs in recent times that a fresh diplomatic start could be made. In March, Modi congratulated Pakistani counterpart Shehbaz Sharif on his return to the premiership. Shehbaz Sharif’s brother Nawaz Sharif, who is back in the country after spending time in exile, has sent feelers to India for friendship.
China’s shadow is looming over the Maldives, where pro-Beijing Mohamed Muizzu won the country’s presidential election on an anti-India plank. However, facing stiff domestic resistance for antagonising India for China, Muizzu has softened his stand, sending his foreign minister recently to India. Muizzu was one of the first country heads to congratulate Modi on his return to power.
The “Neighbourhood First” policy of the Modi government is likely to continue in his third term. But in contrast to the Quad, which is set to get a further boost, the South Asian grouping, SAARC, is unlikely to get a revival hand from the Modi government.
