BJP faces challenges in its stronghold as Congress springs surprise

The trends for the 2024 Lok Sabha election results indicate a significant setback for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as the party seems to be losing seats in its traditional stronghold states. Meanwhile, Congress and other opposition parties are poised to regain vote share in numerous states.

Two days before the counting of votes, several pollsters on June 1 unanimously predicted a thumping victory for the BJP-led coalition in the general election. However, the trend suggests a tough fight between the Congress and the BJP.

According to a poll of nine exit polls, the NDA is set to win over 350 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Notably, three pollsters forecast nearly 400 seats for the BJP-led alliance. While, exit polls predicted just 143 seats for the INDIA bloc, which also includes Congress. However, according to trends, the NDA is leading on 291 seats far behind the prediction of exit polls and the BJP’s bigwigs. On the other hand, the INDI Alliance is leading on 232 seats till noon. The Congress is leading on 98 seats.

Bihar: According to trends available by the Election Commission around noon, the BJP, which had contested 17 seats was leading in 12 while the party secured 17 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress is leading on two seats.

The JD(U) headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who returned to the NDA barely five months ago, was ahead of rivals in 14 out of 16 seats it had contested while junior ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) was ahead in all the five in its kitty, including Hajipur, where its president Chirag Paswan had established a lead of about 24,000 votes. The RJD, which had suffered decimation in the last general elections, was leading in five seats, out of 23 where it had fielded candidates.

West Bengal: Contrary to exit polls that predicted an advantage for the BJP in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is defying anti-incumbency by not only maintaining its position in Bengal but also gaining ground against the BJP. According to initial trends, the BJP is leading in 10 seats, down from the 18 seats it won in the last parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is leading in 31 seats, up from the 22 seats it secured in the previous general elections.

Uttar Pradesh: The Samajwadi Party is leading in 36 seats in the state, while the BJP is leading in 34 seats. In two seats, RLD is ahead. The trends has sent a shockwaves to the NDA particularly to the BJP which won 62 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress seems to have regained its vote share with the party is leading in seven seats.

Rajasthan: An interesting trend to note is the Congress’s performance in Rajasthan, where it looks set to end its dry run, and is currently leading in eight seats of 25 seats.

Haryana: The Congress is looking at a comeback in the state where it lost all seats to the BJP in 2019. Out of 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress is consistently leading on six seats in Haryana.

Gujrat: has gained leads on 23 out of the 25 parliamentary seats in Gujarat on which votes were being counted on Tuesday, while it is witnessing a neck-to-neck fight with the Congress in Banaskantha and Patan. The Congress has gained leads with a narrow margin in Banaskantha and Patan seats. In the Banaskantha seat, Congress candidate Geniben Thakor was leading with a narrow margin of 155 votes. Till 12.30 pm, Thakor polled 3,19,938 lakh votes as against 3,19,783 votes bagged by BJP candidate Rekha Chaudhari. The BJP swept all 26 seats in the states in last parliamentary elections.

Karnataka: Maharashtra: The BJP was leading in 12 seats and allies Shiv Sena in 7 and NCP in 1 constituency as per the latest trends. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the BJP won 23 seats while its then ally Shiv Sena (undivided) bagged 18. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) seemed to be faring rather well, leading in 27 seats.

A Congressman turned independent was leading in Sangli seat. While the Congress was leading in 11, Shiv Sena (UBT) was leading in 9 and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) was ahead in 7 seats as of 1 pm on Tuesday as the counting of votes, which began at 8 am, progressed.  In Maharashtra, a total of 35 MPs who won in 2019 were renominated for the 2024 elections. However, 19 of these MPs are now trailing. The BJP is worst-hit, with 12 of its 17 renominated MPs trailing. The Shiv Sena had renominated eight MPs, of which 5 are trailing.

Assam: The ruling BJP and its allies, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United Peoples’ Party Liberal (UPPL), lead in 11 and opposition Congress in four of the 14 Lok Sabha constituencies.BJP is ahead in eight constituencies with Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal in Dibrugarh, Rajya Sabha MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa in Kaziranga, MLA Ranjit Dutta in Tezpur, sitting MP Pradan Baruah in Lakhimpur, Bijuli Kalita Medhi in Guwahati, Dilip Saikia in Darrang-Udalguri, Amar Sing Tisso in Diphu (ST), Parimal Suklabaidya in Silchar (SC) and Kripanath Malla in Karimganj leading over their nearest rivals.

The NDA alliance in the state contested in all the 14 seats with the BJP in 11 while the Congress, a constituent of the 16-party United Opposition Forum Assam (UOFA), contested in 13 seats and left the Dibrugarh seat for the Assam Jatiya Parishad while the AIUDF contested in three and AAP in two. In the outgoing Lok Sabha, BJP held nine seats, Congress three, AIUDF and an independent one each from the state.