Former United States president Donald Trump on Thursday was found guilty on all 34 felony counts in his criminal hush money trial. This historic verdict, delivered after 9.5 hours of jury deliberation over two days, marks the first time a former US president has been tried and convicted in a criminal case.
Trump is still a leading contender in the 2024 presidential race. After this conviction, is he still eligible to run for the President of the US after the conviction? Will his chances in the race for the top post in the country be affected? Can he even vote? We explain.
Trump’s eligibility to run for president
Despite being found guilty of felony on 34 counts, Donald Trump remains eligible to run for president. The US Constitution sets only three qualifications for presidential candidates: they must be at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen, and have resided in the US for at least 14 years. Neither a criminal conviction nor a prison sentence would disqualify Trump from pursuing his campaign.
Even if Trump goes to jail, which is unlikely given that he has been convicted of a non-violent crime, is a first-time offender, and is on the older side, he would still be able to campaign and run for the post of president.
There is precedent for this. For instance, in 1920, Socialist candidate Eugene Debs ran for president from prison, though he was not a serious contender.
However, it is important to note that even in the unlikely case that Trump gets a jail term on the day of sentencing on July 11, there will be a long appeals process against that. That procedure is not expected to end before the elections in November.
Can Trump still vote?
Trump’s right to vote in the upcoming election depends on the specifics of his sentencing. In Florida, where Trump is a resident, felons are re-enfranchised following the completion of their sentence and the payment of associated fines and fees. If Trump is sentenced to prison, his voting rights would hinge on whether he has served his sentence by Election Day.
Trump’s campaign bolstered by the verdict?
The unanimous guilty verdict has had immediate political repercussions. Trump described the verdict as the result of a “rigged, disgraceful trial.” He added, “The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people. This is long from over.” Republican leaders and officials have rallied behind Trump, with many viewing the verdict as politically motivated. This unity within the GOP is expected to bolster Trump’s campaign through increased fundraising and solidified support from his base.
The influx of donations following the verdict crashed WinRed, the platform used for fundraising. That was a case in point about the fervent support Trump continues to command.
Campaign strategists are leveraging this momentum to portray Trump as a victim of a politically driven justice system, a narrative that has historically proven effective in rallying his base.
In a different era, a criminal conviction could potentially ruin a presidential candidacy. However, Trump’s political career has persisted despite two impeachment efforts, allegations of sexual misconduct, investigations into potential connections with Russia, and efforts to overturn an election. The general allegations in this case have been public knowledge for years and are considered less serious than other accusations against Trump, such as undermining American democracy and mishandling national security information.
Negative impact expected, too
Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group that has sought to move the party away from Trump, told BBC, “I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate.”
She says younger voters and those who are college-educated and live in the suburbs have been concerned about Trump’s demeanor and his approach to governing. “The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns,” Hill-Davis said.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in April revealed that one in four Republicans would not vote for Trump if found guilty, while 60 per cent of independents said a conviction would sway their vote against him.
Sarah Longwell, founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, who conducts regular focus groups, told AP that the guilty verdict may help Biden on the margins by pushing so-called “double haters” — a term used to describe voters who dislike Trump and Biden — away from Trump.
There is also an expectation that President Joe Biden’s campaign is the immediate reaction from elected Democrats was muted. However, the Biden campaign issued a fundraising appeal within minutes of the verdict, stating, “We’re THRILLED that justice has finally been served. But this convicted criminal can STILL win back the presidency this fall without a huge surge in Democratic support.”
As Trump awaits sentencing and continues his presidential campaign, the political landscape remains highly volatile. His conviction has intensified partisan divisions, galvanised some of his supporters, and also alienated some Republican voters. The upcoming months will reveal the extent to which Trump’s legal troubles impact his campaign and the broader US electoral process.
With inputs from agencies
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