India has given its verdict – a surprising one. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will return for a historic third term but not with the hope they had. The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of a majority on its own, having won 240 seats. With 272 as the halfway mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha, it now depends on its alliance partners.
Not only is the BJP far from its “400 paar” target this election but the verdict also ends its dominance as the single-largest party in the Lower House. Coalition politics is back in the limelight and the two main players in the spotlight are Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) leader N Chandrababu Naidu .
What does this mean for the BJP? And what are the challenges ahead?
The numbers
The NDA has bagged 292 seats of which the BJP is the biggest party with 240 seats. However, the party alone does not enjoy a majority and to form a government it needs the help of its alliance partners. This is where the JD(U) and the TDP come in.
In Bihar, where Kumar dumped the INDI Alliance in January, and once again switched sides, the JD(U) has won 12 seats the same as the BJP. However, the former contested in fewer constituencies.
In Andhra, the TDP has won 16 seats and the BJP three. Of the 25 seats in the state, NDA bagged 21.
Between, the JD(U) and TDP, they have 28 seats, which are crucial to the alliance ahead of government formation.
The other BJP allies include the Lok Janshakti Party, which has won five Lok Sabha seats, the Eknath Shinde-led Sena which has seven, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Janata Dal (Secular) with two seats.
The possibility of losing allies
As results showed surprise gains for the INDI Alliance, reports started emerging in the media that leaders of the Opposition bloc were reaching out to Nitish and Naidu.
The JD(U) chief has a reputation for switching sides earning the moniker “paltu ram”. He was with the INDIA bloc until January and was once seen as a potential opposition PM candidate.
The BJP now needs the JD(U), which is the third largest party in the NDA, to form the government. Nitish will use this as leverage to make bigger demands from the saffron party. But keeping his record his mind, his support will keep the BJP on edge. With Nitish in the fold, a stable government is not likely.
The TDP has been an ally of both the NDA and the UPA in the past. After joining the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2019, it rejoined the NDA in February this year.
Naidu’s TDP has made a big comeback in the Andhra assembly elections and its performance in Lok Sabha was also commendable. Now emerging as kingmaker, he is likely to demand several ministries and the BJP will have to play the negotiating game well.
The LJP is now helmed by Chirag Paswan, the son of the late Ram Vilas Paswan. The Modi government denied him a Cabinet berth and with five Lok Sabha seats, he can be lured by the INDI Alliance if they come close to forming a government.
The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena is now on the back foot having won fewer seats than the Uddhav faction in Maharashtra, seven and nine respectively. There is always fear that some of the MPs would once again switch sides and return to Thackeray, who is part of the INDI Alliance.
The RLD in Uttar Pradesh was wooed by the BJP after its founder Charan Singh was given the Bharat Ratna and the JD(S) left the Congress in Karnataka after much cajoling, reports The Indian Express. The two parties can also make demands as a prize to stick to the NDA.
The challenges for the NDA if the allies stick
The BJP has run a coalition government in the past under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. But dealing with fickle allies is a new challenge for the party under Modi. If all goes well for the party, it will manage to keep its partners together and form a government.
However, there is a possibility that the saffron party might not be able to push through with some of its reforms like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and “One Nation, One Poll” .
The BJP has implemented UCC in Uttarakhand with other BJP-ruled states promising to follow suit. However, with no absolute majority in Lok Sabha, it might have to put its plan on the back burner. Introducing simultaneous polls will not be a cakewalk. While the JD(U) had backed the plan for simultaneous polls, the TDP had its reservations.
In 2018, the TDP and BJP parted ways over Andhra Pradesh’s special status. It remains to be seen if Naidu puts this demand back on the table.
The opening of Ram Mandir did not do any favours for the BJP as was evident with the loss in Faizabad , the constituency that includes Ayodhya. Now the party might have to rethink its plan for other disputed sites in Mathura and Kashi.
Uncertainty is on the cards and it is likely to impact the economy. The party might not be able to enact tough reforms around labour and land rules, according to a report in Bloomberg.
A coalition government means that the BJP will have to learn the balancing act and might have to hold back on its pet projects.
With inputs from agencies
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