Lok Sabha election results 2024: What worked in favour of the INDI Alliance in UP? What led to BJP’s upset?

It seems to be an UPset. Even with the BJP-led NDA poised to win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ruling party seems to be suffering reverses in the Hindi heartland, especially in Uttar Pradesh.

In the afternoon, hours after counting began, the Election Commission data showed that the BJP was leading in 34 seats of the 80 that the state sends to the lower house. Its ally, Jayant Chaudhry’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) was leading in two other seats and Apna Dal in another one. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was leading in 35, while the Congress was ahead in seven.

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These trends belie what the exit polls had predicted for the big state of UP. We take a closer look at what’s going on in UP, how different is it from the exit polls and the factors that led to this unfolding situation.

What has unfolded so far?

Today as counting began all eyes were focused on Uttar Pradesh to see how the BJP and its allies would fare in the state, which holds the honour of sending most MPs to Lok Sabha. By afternoon, the trends that emerged was a worrying sign for the NDA.

The NDA, made up of BJP, RLD and Apna Dal, was leading in 39 seats whereas the INDI Alliance — made up of Akhilesh Yadav-led SP and Congress — was ahead in 40 seats.

Interestingly, Congress’ Rahul Gandhi was leading from the Rae Bareli seat and so is Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj. Meanwhile, Union minister Smriti Irani is trailing from her Amethi seat.

These trends have delivered a shock to NDA and its followers as well as many political pundits. That’s because even exit polls, including News18’s, had stated that the NDA would sweep the elections in the state, bagging 68-71 seats, whereas the INDI Alliance would only win nine-12 seats.

What happened in UP in the past?

The results so far in UP are a marked difference from what happened in the state in the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Five years ago, in 2019, the BJP had won 62 of the 80 seats in the state. And its ally, the Apna Dal (Sonelal) had won another two more.

In 2019, the BSP stood second with 10 seats while the Samajwadi Party managed a single-digit tally of five seats, while the Congress stood at a dismal one seat. It’s important to note that at the time the BSP and SP were in an alliance of its own.

Of the 62 seats that the BJP won in 2019, the most seats — 23 — for the BJP came from the state’s western part. Moreover, the Bundelkhand region was also swept by the BJP, winning all four Lok Sabha seats of Jhansi, Banda, Hamirpur, and Jalaun-SC.

And 10 years ago, in 2014, the BJP and its allies had won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats.

What could be reasons for BJP’s disappointing performance?

There are a number of factors that have influenced the results. Many had predicted that the construction of the Ram Mandir would sway votes in the BJP’s favour. However, this doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, Faizabad, the home constituency of the Ram Mandir, has also voted in favour of the SP, with its candidate Awadhesh Prasad leading by a huge margin against the BJP candidate.

Moreover, Akhilesh Yadav has worked hard to make inroads into the non-Yadav OBC vote. And it is for this very reason, he fielded only five candidates from the Yadav community — all from his family — in its 62 seats.

An SP leader was quoted as saying to Indian Express: “The party’s vote share increased when it joined hands with smaller parties, who draw the support of non-Yadav OBCs. The party has accommodated candidates from other communities to reach out to voters of other OBC groups and upper castes.”

Interestingly, in an attempt to woo more votes, the SP chief had modified his “M-Y” or Muslim-Yadav formula to “PDA” or “Pichde (backward classes or OBCs), Dalits, Alpasankhyak (minorities)”. He fielded 27 candidates from the other OBCs, 11 upper castes (including four Brahmins, two Thakurs, two Vaishyas and one Khatri) and four Muslims. It nominated 15 Dalit candidates in SC-reserved seats.

As per an NDTV report, the ‘UP ke ladke’ pitch has also seemed to find favour with the people of the state. Though the last time, they tried this formula was in 2017, a more mature Akhilesh and Rahul seems to have changed the picture.

There’s also no Mayawati factor at play. Even as counting progresses, the BSP is not leading on any seat; this is not good news for Mayawati.

What’s even more significant is that from the Nagina seat, Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad is leading while the BSP candidate is trailing behind in the fourth spot. A victory for Azad and a big loss for BSP shows that the Dalit voter base has now found new leaders.

With inputs from agencies