Maha shocker for NDA: How Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar came out on top

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is making waves in Maharashtra.

The Opposition alliance comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP SP) was reported to have all sorts of issues when it came to seat-sharing ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

But as the votes are being counted, the MVA is way ahead of the ruling Mahayuti comprising the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

The MVA is leading in 19 seats with Congress ahead in 12 seats, the UBT is ahead in 11 seats while the NCP (SP) is winning  6 seats.

The NDA, meanwhile, is leading in 19 seats with the BJP itself ahead in 12 seats, the Shinde Sena in 5 seats and the Ajit Pawar NCP ahead in 1 seat and one Independent.

Maharashtra sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

But what happened in Maharashtra? How did Uddhav and Pawar come out on top?

Let’s take a closer look:

What happened?

According to The Print, the Mahayuti took its sweet time to finalise its seat-sharing and candidates.

The BJP despite contesting 28 seats – five seats more than 2019 elections – is leading only in 12 seats.

It won 23 seats in the previous general election.

Meanwhile, the Shinde-led Sena contested 15 and the Ajit-led NCP contested four seats.

One seat was kept for Mahadev Jankar of the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha.

Meanwhile, the MVA, despite its many differences, sorted out matters in April.

The Shiv Sena UBT was given 21 seats, the Congress was allotted 17 seats and the Nationalist Congress Party (SP) took 10 seats.

“We declared the seat-sharing after mutual agreement,” Pawar was quoted as saying.

“There comes a time when we have to close the discussion on who wants what and start preparing for elections. Everyone has ambitions but the bigger goal is to win,” Uddhav added.

As part of its seat-sharing arrangement with MVA allies, the Congress contested Mumbai North Central and Mumbai North seats.

The Congress did not win any Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai in the 2014 and 2019 general elections.

“The Congress is a national party. It has made significant contributions to the Independence struggle. The party is focused on removing dictatorship. So we have shown a big heart and given up the claim on disputed seats,” Congress state chief Nana Patole said at the time, as per The Print.

The Uddhav Sena contested the remaining four seats in the financial capital Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North East and Mumbai North West.

The undivided Shiv Sena, in alliance with the BJP, had won three seats in 2019.

Of its three MPs, only Arvind Sawant remained with Thackeray after the party suffered a split in June 2022.

The two other MPs, Rahul Shewale and Gajanan Kirtikar, switched to the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

While Shewale has been renominated from his seat, Kiritkar did not get a ticket.

Voters seem to punish Shinde

The Mahayuti looks set to miss its Mission 45 plus in Maharashtra.

The BJP’s ploy of leaving 15 seats for the Shinde faction has also completely misfired as voters have expressed their anger against Chief Minister Eknath Shinde for “aligning with the BJP to seek power.”

A piece in NDTV argued that though Thackeray and Pawar saw their parties split, symbols snatched away and names changed, they have demonstrated that they lead “the real Shiv Sena and the real Nationalist Congress Party.”

The piece noted that posters outside the UBT office stating “Who is the real Sena? People have shown” have been put up.

The NDTV piece stated that the NDA has taken a real hit in Maharashtra.

“In no other state has the political landscape altered between two elections as in this key state. In 2019, the BJP and the Shiv Sena were in an alliance. Together, they won 41 out of 48 seats. The NCP won four seats and the Congress one,” the piece noted.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi’s “threat to the Constitution narrative” seemed to work on voters.

Further, the transfer of votes between the two parties has not happened despite Shinde and his deputy Devendra Fadnavis exhorting the respective party members and voters to vote with the sole objective of making Narendra Modi the Prime Minister for the third successive term.

Despite putting in place an active and strong poll machinery up to the booth and panna levels, BJP could not bring the voters to the polling stations considering the voting percentage of 61.33 per cent in the five phases of polling against its target of 75 per cent.

Shinde’s repeated attempt to strongly defend his decision to part ways with Uddhav Thackeray for the sake of Hindutva and to keep Balasaheb Thackeray’s thoughts intact has failed to come off.

Contrary to expectations, the induction of Ajit Pawar-led NCP in the Mahayuti has failed miserably to bring in the desired change, especially in the cooperative-rich Western Maharashtra where NCP SP has gained further grounds.

Pawar legacy intact

Even though Ajit’s faction got a paltry four seats against its desire of 10 to 13 seats, the party failed to convince the voters of its move to side with the BJP leaving Sharad Pawar.

Furthermore, Ajit’s move to field his wife Sunetra Pawar against his estranged cousin and NCP SP nominee Supriya Sule from Baramati seems to have gone against him.

The Baramatikars have preferred to vote for Supriya to keep Sharad Pawar’s legacy intact.

The voters from Baramati have also voted Supriya for Lok Sabha while hinting that Ajit Pawar will be their first choice in the upcoming state assembly elections likely in October this year.

More importantly, the protests by Marathas and OBCs over politically crucial reservation issues have cost Mahayuti heavily.

A visible divide based on caste and not on religion, especially in Marathwada has worked against Mahayuti.

The state government’s move to enact legislation providing a 10 per cent quota for the Maratha community did not yield positive results.

The trends have raised alarm for the Mahayuti ahead of the upcoming Assembly polls as the MVA will certainly step up its efforts for its defeat.

Though the results continue to come in, it seems that the BJP and SS-UBT are the biggest winners.

Political observers said it has implications for the Maharashtra Assembly elections due in October, particularly for the Mahayuti cobbled up by the BJP with two splinter groups - the Shiv Sena and the NCP - now resented by the voters.

The most-watched seat of Baramati has kept faith with sitting member and NCP-SP working president Supriya Sule, while her ‘nanad’ (sister-in-law) Sunetra Ajit Pawar, wife of NCP president and Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, trailed.

The BJP’s confidence was shattered in Chandrapur where its nominee and state minister Sudhir Mungantiwar was trailing far behind the Congress’ Pratibha S. Dhanorkar.

However, the BJP had reasons to smile in Pune where its candidate Murlidhar Mohol was comfortably leading over the Congress rival Ravindra Dhangekar. The Shiv Sena nominee in Kalyan Dr Shrikant Eknath Shinde piled up a strong lead over the SS-UBT’s Vaishali Darekar-Rane, and ditto with Thane where its nominee Naresh Mhaske was leading comfortably over SS-UBT’s Rajan Vichare.

The BJP was also on the way to scoring in Mumbai North Central where Ujjwal Nikam was leading, and NCP’s state President Sunil Tatkare was trending over the SS-UBT’s heavyweight Anant Geete in Raigad.

Congress nominee Chhatrapati Shrimant Shahu Maharaj was set for a victory walk in Kolhapur, but the BJP was downcast in Satara where its candidate Chhatrapati Udayanraje Bhosale was trailing behind NCP-SP’s Shashikant Shinde.

In a few seats like Mumbai North East, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South Central, Solapur, Amravati, and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, a tough fight is witnessed with the outcome swinging either the MahaYuti’s side or in MVA’s favour.

Apparently pleased by the likely outcome, Shiv Sena-UBT MP Sanjay Raut asserted that the INDIA bloc is set to bring a change in the country’s political landscape with the manner in which it has performed all over. Considering the Congress’ strong run in the country, the party is likely to emerge as the single largest entity and Rahul Gandhi could lead the nation, Raut told media.

Pawar says ‘harbinger of change’, Shinde blames vote bank politics

Pawar described the results in Maharashtra as a ‘harbinger of change.’

He said the people have taught a lesson to the “BJP’s politics of destroying parties” and that the outcome would impact the state Assembly elections in October.

He said the coalition has performed well in the state.

“I had been saying this from the start… The people have rejected the politics of ‘mandir-masjid’. The masses have voted on issues like unemployment, inflation, farmers, and other basic concerns confronting them,” said Pawar.

Pawar also denied having spoken with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu.

“I have not called up Chandrababu Naidu… Whatever is the outcome, after discussing with colleagues in the other INDIA allies, we shall share it publicly tomorrow,” Pawar was quoted as saying by Deccan Chronicle.

Shinde on Tuesday claimed that the Opposition’s propaganda that the NDA would change the Constitution and the delay in announcing candidates cost the Shiv Sena and its allies some seats.

Talking to reporters, Shinde said the vote bank politics of the opposition had affected the NDA’s performance.

“The Opposition parties ran relentless propaganda that we would change the Constitution. We failed to clear the doubts among voters. Our losses are also due to vote bank politics,” he said.

The chief ministers also attributed delays in announcing candidates in some seats to the setbacks in some constituencies.

Shinde was apparently referring to the Nashik Lok Sabha seat, where the Shiv Sena fielded Hemant Godse despite opposition from the BJP and NCP. Godse is trailing against the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate.

Shinde also changed his sitting MPs from the Hingoli and Yavatmal-Washim constituencies, and the party candidates are trailing in both seats.

“The vote bank politics also affected us. I want to tell them (the opposition) that people have never liked vote bank politics. Late Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray never liked it,” he said.

Shinde has managed to clinch his stronghold Thane, where he fielded his close aide Naresh Mhaske.

“People voted for the work my government has done in the last two years and 10 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. People of Thane have stood with us for our work,” he said.

With inputs from agencies