Pro-incumbency in Northeast, anti-incumbency in Andhra and Odisha

Four states went to the polls along with the Lok Sabha election — Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. In the Northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, the voters have brought back the incumbent parties to power, while the ruling parties are struggling in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

A change of era on the cards in Odisha

The BJP has made massive progress in Odisha, with the latest figures at 11.45 am showing the BJP crossing the majority mark in trends. CM Naveen Patnaik’s BJD looked on its way to lose power in the state that it has ruled for about 25 years.

The Election Commission figures showed the BJP leading at 77 of the 147 Assembly seats in Odisha, while the BJD was ahead in 53 constituencies. The Congress was ahead in 12 and the CPM in one.

In terms of vote share, the BJP was polling about 41% of the votes while the BJD was not far behind with about 40% votes. If the trends hold true, this would end an era of political governance in Odisha, which saw Patnaik maintaining his unchallenged sway over the masses.

In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP was leading at 18 of the 21 seats from Odisha. The BJD was leading at two and the Congress one. The BJP was polling about 46% of votes against the BJD’s 37%.

Andhra turns the tide on Jagan

Trends for all 175 Assembly seats are now in, with the Election Commission figures showing a massive lead for the NDA — an alliance of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the BJP and the Janasena Party (JSP). The YSR Congress of CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is facing a decimation in the polls.

The latest Election Commission figures at 11.45 am show the NDA leading at 154 seats, with the YSR Congress ahead only at 21 seats. This is a complete reversal of what was seen in the 2019 Assembly polls. Back then, YSR Congress had won 151 seats and the TDP of former CM N Chandrababu Naidu had won just 23. The JSP of actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan could win only one seat.

In the current trends, the BJP was leading at seven seats while the JSP was ahead at 20 seats. In terms of vote share, the TDP was leading with over 45% votes and the YSR Congress was polling around 40% of the votes.

The TDP’s victory, if trends hold true, comes as a surprise as Naidu was in jail only a few months ago and political analysts were writing his party off. But in about six months, Naidu has turned around his party’s fortunes, aided by the alliances with the BJP and the JSP.

Sikkim, Arunachal votes for govt

In Sikkim, the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) led by CM Prem Singh Tamang returned to power by sweeping the Assembly polls, winning 31 of the 32 seats as counting of votes concluded on Sunday. The Opposition Sikkim Democratic Front could manage to win only one seat. Sikkim had voted for the Assembly on April 19.

In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP retained power by winning 46 of the 60 Assembly seats in the state. This is the third consecutive victory for the BJP in Arunachal Pradesh, which voted on April 19.

The BJP had already won 10 seats unopposed. CM Pema Khandu was one of those who won unopposed. The National People’s Party (NPP) won five seats in Arunachal Pradesh, while the People’s Party of Arunachal got two seats and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) three. The Congress managed to win one seat, while the Independent candidates won three.