Is it the end of the Congress? Will India finally see a Congress-mukt Bharat? These were the questions being asked by many as India voted in its Lok Sabha elections. However, as votes are being tallied, it seems that all is not lost for the Grand Old Party. In fact, the 2024 Lok Sabha election results will give the party a reason to smile — as it is on course to win over 100 Lok Sabha seats.
In fact, the INDI Alliance, as per early trends, have defied exit poll predictions and are poised to win 223 seats while the NDA is ahead with 292.
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Let’s take a closer look at how Congress has improved on its own personal tally in these elections, compared to 2019 and 2014. And what this could mean for national politics.
Congress at century mark, INDI Alliance surges ahead
As per the Election Commission data so far, the Congress has won 97 seats so far and is expected to cross the 100-mark. Moreover, the INDI Alliance of which Congress is a part of has also defied exit polls and are poised to win 229 seats after the last round of counting.
Earlier exit polls had predicted that the INDI Alliance wouldn’t fare that well this election. News 24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll had predicted the NDA to win 400 seats, while the INDI Alliance would settle at 100 seats. Meanwhile, India Today-Axis My India poll results said that the NDA would bag somewhere between 361-401 seats in the Lok Sabha. Times Now-ETG exit poll results had predicted the NDA to get 358 seats, while the INDI Alliance would get 152 seats.
News18’s mega exit poll had also predicted 355-370 for the NDA, while the INDI Alliance was pegged to win 125-140 votes.
Interestingly, this is Congress’ best performance in the past three general elections.
Congress in 2019
Today’s performance by the Congress in the polls is their best and a marked improvement from the past Lok Sabha poll. In 2019, the Congress on its own secured 52 seats. At the same time, the BJP had raced ahead with 303 on its own and 353 with allies.
In 2019, the Congress was unable to breach the Hindi belt — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh — and secured just six seats there. Compare this to the BJP’s 141 from the same region.
To make things worse, Rahul Gandhi suffered a shock defeat to BJP’s Smriti Irani from Amethi, considered a bastion of the Gandhi family. Irani had then defeated the former Congress president by a margin of 55,120 votes.
Congress’ slump in 2014
In the prior election, in 2014, the Congress saw its worst performance, winning only 44 seats. The Grand Old Party had lost 162 seats and dropped nearly 9.3 per cent of the vote share.
It was in this election that the Modi wave enveloped the country, especially in the Hindi heartland. In 2014, the NDA had won 73 seats in UP, 41 in Maharashtra, 31 in Bihar, and 27 in Madhya Pradesh. It also swept Gujarat’s 26, Rajasthan’s 25 and Delhi’s seven.
At the same time, the Congress was only able to bag two seats in the UP — Amethi and Rae Bareli. Moreover, it only picked up six seats across the rest of the belt, with its UPA partners contributing a further six, reports NDTV.
Also read: Lok Sabha election results 2024: PM Modi leads, Smriti Irani trails… How the big names are faring so far
What a 100-mark means for Congress
According to some poll pundits, a 100-mark for the Congress could shake up national politics. In fact, Shekhar Gupta wrote for The Print: “If the Congress reached 90, for example, it would have a pretty good chance of holding the BJP below the 272 mark.”
With inputs from agencies
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