Lok Sabha election results 2024: What went wrong for Modi’s BJP

The people have spoken. A day after counting, the picture is clear: the BJP-led NDA has won after securing 292 seats in a 543-member Lok Sabha. The INDI Alliance defied all exit polls and predictions and bagged 234 seats.

One of the biggest takeaways from the 2024 Lok Sabha election results has been the drop in numbers for the BJP. From a commanding 303 seats in 2019, the Narendra Modi-led BJP has been reduced to 240 seats this time around.

This paints a tough political picture for the BJP. It will be heavily dependent on its alliance partners especially the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal(United), ending a decade of single-party dominance and heralding the return of a coalition government at the Centre.

But what went wrong for the BJP? What are factors that led to its reduced seats? We examine and get you all the answers.

Poor show in big states

One of the biggest factors that has led to the BJP’s poorer show is its performance in big states namely Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra . In fact, the adage in Indian politics that ‘the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow’ rings loud and clear this election season.

In UP, the BJP has won 33 seats on its own and 36 with its alliance partners. That’s a significant drop from the previous elections. In 2014, the BJP sent 71 MPs to Lok Sabha from the northern state and in 2019, it bagged 62 seats on its own and two more with its ally — the Apna Dal (Sonelal).

Many analysts have observed that Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula is one of the reasons for its improved performance and the BJP’s poorer show. Moreover, ticket distribution changed this time around. The Indian Express quoting a BJP leader said: “It (ticket distribution) was based on reports of some survey agencies and reports from some intelligence agencies. They defined their own criteria, likings and dislikings about ticket claimants and did not listen to word on the ground realities.”

Moreover, it appears that the Ram Mandir campaign did not resonate among the voters. In fact, the BJP lost the Faizabad seat, where Ayodhya, the city of Ram Mandir, is situated.

Another notable factor was the lack of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) volunteers and the demoralisation of the BJP’s grassroots workers. As the Indian Express stated in one of its reports: “The RSS not involved in the way it was in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls. RSS volunteers were not as active as before, especially in western UP areas.”

In Maharashtra too, the BJP suffered a major setback. The BJP won nine of the 48 seats, while its allies — the Shiv Sena (SHS) and NCP — won seven and one seat respectively. This took the NDA’s tally in the state to 17. Compare this to 2019, where the BJP had won 23 seats on its own.

This shows that the splits of the Shiv Sena in 2022 and the NCP in 2023 hasn’t gone down well with the voters. Political pundits also argue that the Maratha agitation for reservations in education and government jobs may have be an influenced the results.

Unemployment and the Agniveer scheme

Another reason behind BJP’s poor performance could be the fact that the party has been unable to address the issue of unemployment in the country. Significantly, the BJP’s manifesto had even skipped inflation and unemployment from its manifesto.

Former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda speaking on the same said that farmers’ plight, unemployment, law and order, and inflation were key issues which the ruling BJP failed to address. “They did not redress farmers’ issues. And everyone knows the treatment that was meted to our wrestler daughters, who had to protest (at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar),” he was quoted as telling news agency PTI.

Hooda added that unemployment increased in Haryana during the BJP rule while the law and order situation also deteriorated.

Moreover, many pundits note that the BJP didn’t take into account the anger over the short-tenure Agnipath scheme. Many rural youths have expressed their discontent over the military recruitment scheme. As one of them was quoted as telling The Wire: “The four-year recruitment tenure in short-term defence recruitment model, popularly known as Agniveer or Agnipath scheme, is a gross injustice.”

Rise of regional players

In 2014, the BJP’s mercurial rise on the back of the Modi wave pushed regional parties into the periphery of the national politics. However, the 2024 election has flipped the switch again.

This election, the SP in UP has delivered a major blow to the BJP by winning 37 seats. Similarly, belying exit poll predictions, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC has bagged 29 seats in West Bengal, pushing the BJP far, far behind. This also makes the TMC the third-biggest party in the Opposition INDIA bloc after the Congress and the SP.

Similarly, the TDP and the JD(U) have also scored big. The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP has secured a total of 16 seats whereas the Nitish Kumar-powered JD(U) has won 12 seats.

The BJP will have to pay significant heed to its allies now, with experts saying that Modi will have to strike a more conciliatory note.

Turncoats hurt the BJP

Prior to the elections, the BJP took in several members from the Congress and other parties. However, they have not performed as the party would have liked. In Himachal and Punjab, many Congress defectors to the BJP faltered.

Maneesh Chhibber, a journalist, wrote, “Voters deal blow to turncoats. In Himachal, out of six turncoats who switched from Congress to BJP, four are losing. In Punjab, Ravneet Bittu, Cong-turned-BJP, is trailing @RajaBrar_INC by 24000 votes while AAP-turned-BJP Sushil Rinku has lost to @CHARANJITCHANNI by 150000 votes.”

This clearly shows that voters were unhappy with defections and cast them out.

voter fatigue is a factor for the BJP’s poor show. To many, the outcome of the Lok Sabha election was a foregone conclusion making their participation in the exercise not so eventful

Voter exhaustion

As one of Firstpost’s previous reports stated that even voter fatigue is a factor for the BJP’s poor show. To many, the outcome of the Lok Sabha election was a foregone conclusion making their participation in the exercise not so eventful. On the other hand, those strongly opposing the politics of the BJP had a strong motivation to express themselves in the election.

The BBC also reports that the BJP’s ambitious slogan “Ab ki baar, 400 paar,” aiming for more than 400 seats for the alliance, may have backfired, with such a massive majority raising fears of constitutional changes among the poor.

It is left to be seen now if the BJP allies stick with the flock. Or will they leave the nest and fly away?

With inputs from agencies